国际贸易中美不平衡人民币升值英文文献及翻译 第2页
reported in the second set of results in Table 1. It is clearly similar to the OLS results; in particular, the coefficient of the real exchange rate is significant and of similar magnitude. A third estimate is given by the cointegrating vector estimated by the Johansen procedure which is also reported in Table 1. Again, the results are similar, particularly the estimate of the coefficient of the real exchange rate which is significant and almost the same magnitude as that estimated by FMOLS.
We can, therefore, be confident that there is a significant long-run effect of the real exchange rate on the
trade balance and that the magnitude is in the range 0.83 to 1.1. We now explore the implications of these estimated coefficients for the response of the trade balance to a change in the exchange rate.
4.2. The effect of a revaluation on the trade balance
There are three preliminary matters. First, the real exchange rate appears in the equations while a revaluation directly affects only the nominal rate. We can use the coefficient of the real exchange rate only
Table 2
Increases in the US–China trade balance for various real appreciations of the RMB
Δquc / quc OLS elasticity = 0.8298 FMOLS elasticity = 1.0767 Cointegration elasticity = 1.0776
ΔD =0 ΔX =0 ΔX /X = − ΔD / D ΔD =0 ΔX =0 ΔX / X = − ΔD / D ΔD =0 ΔX =0 ΔX / X = − ΔD / D
0.05 254 1581 918 329 2052 1191 329 2054 1192
0.10 507 3163 1835 658 4104 2381 659 4107 2383
0.20 1015 6326 3670 1316 8208 4762 1317 8215 4766
0.30 1522 9488 5505 1975 12312 7143 1976 12322 7149
0.50 2536 15814 9175 3291 20519 11905 3294 20536 11915
Note: Numbers in the body of the table are increases in the US–China balance of trade compared to the value for 2003(4) when exports were 6113 billion USD, imports were 38,115 billion USD and the trade deficit was 32,002 billion USD.
N. Groenewold, L. He / Economics Letters 96 (2007) 127–132 131
if we can assume that the price levels are largely unaffected by the revaluation. Himarios (1989) found this to be a reasonable approximation in his work and we proceed under this assumption.4
Second, the assumed revaluation of the RMB. On the basis of estimates in existing work5 it appears
that a broad consensus is that the RMB is undervalued by something in the range of 10–50%.
Third, the method of computing the effect on the trade balance. Our estimated coefficient gives us an elasticity for the trade balance in ratio form with respect to the exchange rate. Thus our model allows us to predict ΔTB / TB = ΔD / D − ΔX / X while for the change in the dollar value of the trade balance we need ΔX and ΔD separately. We compute our effects under three alternative identification assumptions: that ΔD / D = 0, that ΔX / X = 0 and the ΔD / D = − ΔX / X and apply the percentage changes to the final quarter's trade balance. The results are in Table 2.
The results show clearly that the improvement in the trade balance would be very modest unless there were a very large revaluation — even with a 50% revaluation, the trade deficit would fall by only about
37% under the assumption of equi-proportionate import and export contributions. At more realistic revaluations of, say, 10–20%, the change in the trade balance would be marginal, certainly not of the order that one might expect from the political rhetoric.
5. Conclusions
This paper has estimated the effect on the US–China trade balance of a revaluation of the
RMB, supposedly undervalued. We present a range of computations but likely changes in the value of the RMB are not predicted to make much inroad into the trade imbalance between the US and China — a 10% revaluation is likely to improve the trade balance by less than 10%.
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4 Note that if the assumption is violated the effects of the revaluation are likely to be smaller to the extent that subsequent price changes offset the revaluation, an effect which will strengthen our general conclusions.
5 See Chang and Shao (2004) and Coudert and Couharde (2005).
132 N. Groenewold, L. He / Economics Letters 96 (2007) 127–132
Shirvani, H, Wilbratte, B., 1997. The relationship between the real exchange rate and the trade balance: an empirical reassessment. International Economic Journal 11 (1), 39–50.
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