remaining 12% is explained by changes in asset returns. They conclude that stock prices are not explained by dividend changes.
The residual income method is conceptually more similar to FCF than to
古典文化对现代流行音乐的一点影响dividends. Residual income at its most basic equals the firm’s net income minus the cost of its capital. In the accounting literature, Ohlson’s (1991, 1995) formulation of a residual income model (RIM) is widely accepted and has been subjected to numerous tests. RIM begins with an accounting identity; namely that the change in book value equals the difference between net income and dividends. Ohlson then defines AE as the difference between net income and lagged book value. It is then a small step to observe that the present discounted value of expected future abnormal earnings plus the book value of equity equals stock price . Jiang and Lee (2005) test both the RIM and the dividend discount model. Their test of equity volatility finds that RIM provides more and better information than dividends.
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Unlike previous studies, we rely on actual subsequent cash flows over a period of
time rather than forecasts of cash flow made contemporaneously with EV. Previous
researchers can be thought of as studying the consistency between contemporaneous EV determined in the market and forecasts of future cash flows. Our study does not have that focus. We instead are interested in the actual accuracy of market determined EVs. We compare EVs at a point in time to subsequent cash flows. The closer these values are the more accurate is the market in valuing companies based on their future cash flows.
In order to estimate corporate value with FCFs, annual costs of capital must be
estimated for each company. An alternative is to determine value using the capital cash flow (CCF) method. CCF yields the same present value as FCF but only requires a single cost of capital estimate for each firm. This is the approach we follow.
CCF is determined following Arzac (2005) as follows:
CCF = net income + depreciation - capital expenditures – Δ working capital +
Δ deferred taxes + net interest
火化车间实习总结Estimated enterprise value (EEV) is calculated with the CCF estimates as follows:
EEV =Σ(CCFi,j ) /(1+ kj )t TVj /(1+ kj )y , (i=1….y)
where k is cost of capital, TV is terminal value, i is year, y is the final year with cash flow data and j represents firm. Terminal value is estimated according to the Gordon growth model. EEV estimates are compared with EV, the firm’s actual value as of the last trading day of the year. EV is calculated following Arzac (2005) as follows;
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