摘要近年来我国高速公路通车里程快速增长，高速公路网络规模不断扩大，但是长期以来我国高速公路的高事故率和高伤亡率也一直困扰着相关管理部门。因此，有必要深入研究我国高速公路交通事故发生的内在机理和重要影响因素，进行高速公路交通事故预测的研究工作，并以此为基础，建立我国高速公路的交通安全服务水平分级评价指标体系。本毕业论文的主要工作有：
（1）分析了我国高速公路交通事故特征，阐述了高速公路交通事故的致因机理，深入分析了道路条件、天气状况、交通流状态、驾驶员和车辆状况等各种因素对高速公路交通事故的影响作用，研究表明道路条件、天气状况、交通流状态是影响高速公路交通事故的主要因素。7375
（2）采用负二项分布模型描述了高速公路交通事故的离散性和偶然性特征，结果表明大型车比例、曲线比例、平均纵坡、曲度、弯坡组合以及特殊路段对高速公路交通事故发生的影响作用最为显著，并得到了变量系数的估计值。
（3）在高速公路交通事故数预测的基础上，建立了高速公路交通安全服务水平分级的事故率模型，为实际工作中的合理选用提供了依据。
关键词：高速公路；交通安全；事故预测；安全服务水平
本科生毕业设计说明书（论文）英文摘要
Title：Applications of Level of Service of Safety in Freeway Safety Evaluation
Abstract
Recently, the freeway mileage in our country increase rapidly. The freeway network has been dramatically expanded. However, the freeway is always having a high crash rate and a high mortality, which are always disturbing the related administration. Therefore, it is necessary to make a deep research the causes and internal mechanism of the freeway in our country. We also should do some works about the freeway traffic predictions. And according to this, we establish the freeway traffic safety service level classification system of our country. The main contents of this thesis are summarized as follows:
(1) The characteristics of freeway traffic crash have been analyzed. The causation mechanism of freeway traffic crash has been described. And this thesis has deeply analyzed the influence of freeway traffic crash caused by load conditions, weather conditions, traffic flow conditions, the driver, the vehicle conditions and so on. According to the research, the road conditions, weather conditions and traffic flow conditions are the main factors affecting of the freeway traffic crash.
(2) The negative binomial model was used in this thesis to describe the discrete and occasional characteristics of freeway traffic crash. As the result, the oversize vehicles mixed rate, curve ratio, average longitudinal slope, curvature, curved-slope combinations and the special sections are the most significant variables for the freeway traffic crash, and the coefficient of variables was estimated.
(3) Base on the freeway traffic crashes prediction, the model of freeway traffic safety service level classification was been established, which has provided more method in practical work.
Keywords: Freeway; Traffic Safety; Crash Prediction; Level of Service of Safety
目 次
1 绪论 1
1.1 研究背景与研究意义 1
1.2 主要研究内容及技术线路 5
2 国内外研究综述 7
2.1 交通安全评价方法综述 7
2.2 安全服务水平研究现状 11
2.3 本章小结 15
3 高速公路交通事故特征及安全影响因素分析 16 安全服务水平在高速公路安全评价中的应用:http://www.751com.cn/guanli/lunwen_5305.html