“沪港通”对跨境资本流动的影响分析

摘要“沪港通” 在去年十一月正式实施，带来了市场开放的信号以及资金南下北上的一系列反应。本文首先阐述相关概念的理解和跨境资金的测算方法，然后通过线性分析了解“沪港通”对于上证指数的影响，虽然目前结果为负相关，但是由于成交额较小，从长期的角度基本可以忽略。接着由向量自回归模型分析了上证指数与跨境资本流动的相关性，得出了有一定相互影响的结论。所以，推断“沪港通”对于跨境资本流动影响不大。此外，还具体分析了“沪港通”资金流向的现状以及对未来格局改变发展的预测，并且对实行整体情况提出了自己的看法。26372
关键词沪港通跨境资本资金流向
毕业论文外文摘要
Title   The Effect Analysis of ‘Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect Program’On The Effect of Cross-border Capital Flow
Abstract
‘Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect Program’officially put into effect on last November, and it brought the signal of market opening also with a series of reactions about the capital flew down south and up north. This text firstly explains the understanding of related concepts and the calculating methods of the cross-border capital, then we learn the effect from ‘Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect Program’ on Shanghai composite index by linear analysis, although now
they have negative correlation, but since the low volume of business, it can almost be ignored on the long term. Besides, by the use of vector autoregression model, we study the correlation between Shanghai composite index and the cross-border capital, after that, we have an conclusion that they are having some impacts on each other. So we deuce that ‘Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect Program’ does not have much effect on the cross-border capital. In addition, we analysis the current situation of fund flow of ‘Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect Program’ and the forecast of the change of future situation, also the own opinion has been put forward on the whole implementation.
Keywords Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect Program   cross-border capital fund flow
目   次
1 绪论    1
1.1 研究背景及意义    1
1.2 文献综述    1
1.3 研究思路    3
1.4 研究方法    3
2 “沪港通”发展状况分析    4
2.1 “沪港通”发展状况意义分析    4
2.2 “沪港通”发展状况风险分析    5
2.3 “沪港通”发展状况创新分析    6
2.4 “沪港通” 与QFII、QDII、RQFII的分析    6
3 我国跨境资本流动分析    8
3.1 跨境资本流动总体情况    8
3.2 “沪港通”实施之前、后的跨境资本流动状况    9
4 “沪港通”对跨境资本流动影响的定量分析    12
4.1 “沪港通”对上证指数的影响分析    12
4.2 上证指数对跨境资本流动的影响分析    14
4.3 “沪港通”与跨境资本流动分析    18
5 未来“沪港通”下的我国跨境资本流动预测    20
5.1 “南下”资本    20 “沪港通”对跨境资本流动的影响分析:http://www.751com.cn/jingji/lunwen_20529.html