摘要股票市场被发达国家称为宏观经济的“晴雨表”和“气象台”，金融活动在市场经济发展中的举足轻重的地位已经被广大经济学家认可，但国内众多学者对股票市场和宏观经济之间的关联性认识仍然存在不少分歧。我国股票市场的产生和发展是中国经济体制改革的重大举措，与经济发展息息相关。股票市场能否有效运作将影响到市场优化资源配置、优胜劣汰等功能的发挥。

本文从GDP增长率提高能否促进股市发展这一基本问题出发，研究现阶段我国宏观经济与股票市场之间的关系。全文进行了理论分析，并利用近几年的数据进行了方差分析试验。从理论上说，经济增长对股市发展具有促进作用，但运用方差分析后，发现实际与理论不同，从研究结果上看，GDP增长率的提高对股市发展并没有显著的促进作用，或许我国的股市还有待进一步完善。67266

毕业论文关键词  GDP增长率  股市发展  方差分析   理论和实际

毕业设计说明书（论文）外文摘要

Title    The analysis of the effect of GDP growth rate    for the stock market development                

Abstract

The stock market is called the barometer and the meteorological station in many developed countries. It has been recognized that financial activities plays an important role in the development process of the market economy by majority of economists. However, many scholars at home and abroad have different understandings of the correlation between the stock market and macroeconomic. The emergence and development of the stock market is an important act in the economic reform and tightly associated with economic development. Whether the stock market operates effectively will affect the optimization of the resource allocation, survival of the fittest and so on.

This paper begins with a basic problem whether the rise of GDP growth rate can promote the development of stock market, then do the research on the relationship between GDP growth and the stock market at the present stage. The whole paper includes the theoretical analysis and the analysis of variance test. In theory, the growth of economy promotes the development of the stock market. But after the test, we found the result is different from the theory. The rise of GDP growth rate does not play a significant role in the stock market. I think the stock market in our country is on standby to improve further maybe.

Keywords  GDP growth rate stock market variance analysis theory and fact

目   次

1  导论 1

1.1  选题背景及问题的提出 1

1.2 国内外文献综述 1

2  股票市场和宏观经济的相互作用 3

2.1  股票市场的主要功能 3

2.2  股票市场促进宏观经济的理论概述 4

2.3  宏观经济对股票市场发展的作用 5

3  GDP增长率与股市发展的研究 6

3.1  研究方法：方差分析法 6

3.2  代表性数据和数据来源 6

3.3  模型概述 7

3.3.1  单因素等重复试验 7

3.3.2  多重比较 12

4  试验和结果分析 14