摘要：在全球大气污染日益加剧的背景下，明确大气污染变化趋势及其对冬小麦产量的影响，对保障我国粮食安全具有重要意义。本文利用中国主要冬小麦生产区10个站点2001-2012年的温度、降水、空气污染指数（API）和冬小麦产量数据资料（数据来源于各地区统计年鉴和环保局官网），通过回归统计分析了近年来大气污染的变化趋势及其对冬小麦产量的影响。结果表明：2001以来各站点API值均呈下降趋势，说明近年来污染逐步得到控制。郑州/济南/合肥的API变化与冬小麦产量变化相关性显著，其他站点不显著。API对冬小麦产量的影响率为-0.70%，贡献率为-18.57%，大气污染对冬小麦产量的影响为负效应，且API对北方冬麦区冬小麦产量的影响大于南方冬麦区。25549
毕业论文关键词：冬小麦；产量；空气污染指数；温度；降水量
Effects of Air Pollution on Winter Wheat Yield in China
Abstract: In the increasingly global atmospheric pollution background,he effects of air pollution on crop yield can not be ignored.It is necessary for us to make clear the trend of air pollution,and its effects on the yield of winter wheat,its plays an important role in ensuring food security in China.Based on temperature, precipitation, air pollution index (API) and winter wheat yield date from 2001 to 2012 of 10 stations in the main production area of winter wheat in China(data from the regional statistical yearbook and EPA official website), the trend of air pollution in recent years was analyzed by using the climate tendency rate,and the API trends and the relevance with winter wheat yield were analyzed by regression analysis.The results showed that:the API value decreased since 2001 and it means pollution is being controlled in recent years. Zhengzhou / Ji'nan / API changes and the change of the correlation between Hefei's winter wheat yield significantly, other sites did not significantly affect .The effect of air pollution on winter wheat yield is negative.API decreased winter wheat yield by about -0.70% and the contribution rate to yield trend accounted for -18.57%,and the influence of API on the yield of Winter Wheat in northern China than southern winter wheat region.
Key words: wheat yield; air pollution index; temperature; precipitation
目 录
摘要    1
关键词    1
Abstract    1
Key words    1
引言    1
1材料与方法    2
1.1 研究区域概况    2
1.2 数据来源    3
1.3 数据处理    3
1.3.1 API变化趋势    3
1.3.2 API与产量的相关性    4
1.3.3 API变化趋势对小麦产量的影响率    4
1.3.4 API变化趋势对小麦产量的贡献率    4
2结果与分析    4
2.1 API变化趋势分析    4
2.2 API与小麦产量的相关性分析    4
2.3 API对小麦产量的影响率    5
2.4 API对小麦产量的贡献率    6
3 讨论与结论    6
致谢    7
参考文献    7
大气污染对中国冬小麦产量的影响
近年来，伴随着都市化、产业化进程的加速和人类活动的日益加剧，工农业生产以及都市建设所排放的大气污染物增加，空气质量急剧降低，大气污染已成为威胁可持续发展和人类身体健康的重要挑战。大气中的污染物质主要可以划分为气体型和颗粒型两大类型【1】，其中，颗粒物是空气污染中较为普遍且危害较大的污染物【2】。悬浮在大气中的固态和液态颗粒物统称为大气气溶胶【3】。大气气溶胶会改变了空气和云的光学特性，对空气质量、能见度、云和降水、大气的辐射平衡及平流层和对流层的化学反应等有重要影响【4】。据估计到2100年全球二次有机气溶胶颗粒含量将增加36%【5】，中国大气中气溶胶光学厚度增加幅度将更大【6】,大气气溶胶的改变对气候与环境的影响势必会对作物的生长发育造成影响。 大气污染对中国冬小麦产量的影响:http://www.751com.cn/shengwu/lunwen_19389.html