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【摘要】在现代市场经济条件下，汇率水平适当与否，对一国经济的平稳发展具有十分重要的作用。国际金融危机爆发后，欧美等资本主义国家经济尤其是进出口贸易遭受重创，它们急需人民币升值以缓解危机影响，因此人民币一直面临着升值的压力。在这种情况下，准确判断人民币汇率是否合理并评估汇率波动对我国进出口贸易的影响，对我国乃至世界经济贸易复苏和平稳增长都有重要作用。本论文基于行为均衡汇率模型(BEER)和非完全替代进出口模型(ISIE)，选取1994-2011年我国进出口贸易相关数据作为样本，运用定量分析方法对我国历年均衡汇率和汇率波动率进行测算，同时基于测算结果实证研究汇率波动对我国进出口贸易的影响，并提出降低汇率风险影响的对策建议——调整对外贸易结构、完善金融衍生品市场、实现人民币国际化。19917
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【关键词】汇率制度改革 均衡汇率 汇率波动 金融衍生品 人民币国际化
毕业论文外文摘要
Title The empirical research of the impact of RMB exchange rate volatility on Chinese import and export trade
Abstract
Under the condition of modern market economy ，appropriate exchange rate level is very important for a country’s economy smoothly developing. Since the outbreak of the international financial crisis，economy of capitalist countries of America and Europe suffer a great loss，especially import and export trade. In order to relieve the adverse impact from the crisis，they strongly ask Chinese government to improve RMB exchange rate. As a result，the monetary authorities of China is under the great pressure of appreciation of RMB. In this case，accurately evaluating whether the level of RMB exchange rate is proper is of great importance for the recovery and increase of economy and international trade of China，even the world. On the base of model of behavioral equilibrium exchange rate and imperfect substitute of import and export trade，the thesis chooses relevant data of Chinese import and export trade from 1994 to 2011 as a sample and calculates Chinese equilibrium exchange rate and exchange rate volatility over the years with using quantitative analysis method and makes empirical research on the impact of RMB exchange rate volatility on Chinese international trade in view of above measured results. In the end，the thesis specifically brings up three suggestions to reduce the negative impact of exchange rate fluctuation，which are adjusting foreign trade structure，improving financial derivatives market and making RMB international.
Keywords: Exchange Rate Regime Reform，Equilibrium Exchange Rate，Exchange Rate Volatility，Financial Derivatives，RMB Internationalization
目 录
1 导论1
2 文献综述1
2.1 国外研究文献综述2
2.2 国内研究文献综述3
3 人民币汇率发展历程4
4 均衡汇率和汇率波动测算6
4.1 模型构建与数据选取6
4.2 参数估计与模型检验6
4.3 模型应用7
5 汇率波动对进出口影响实证研究9
5.1 模型构建与数据选取9
5.2 参数估计与模型检验11
5.2.1 汇率波动对进口的影响11
5.2.2 汇率波动对出口的影响13
6 政策建议13
6.1 调整对外贸易结构13
6.2 完善金融衍生品市场14