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摘要：我国的外汇储备量已居于首位。较高的外汇储备与我国经济实力相符。但外汇储备又会影响我国经济的诸多方面，该规模如果不适度会对本国经济发展带来负担。而且我国的外汇储备结构单一，外汇储备中的币种以美元为主，使得08年的金融危机发生了大量缩水。近些年，部分发达国家实行的货币宽松政策，再加上我国高额的外汇储备，使人民币升值压力空前加大，给我国经济发展带来很多制约，如通货膨胀。因此如何较好的控制我国过大的外汇储备规模，使超额外汇储备创造更多的经济效益成为现阶段需要迫切解决的问题。本文通过适合我国经济发展的阿格沃尔模型，分析了现阶段我国外汇储备规模的适度性，并分析高额外汇储备规模产生原因以及产生的利弊影响，最终提出对策。34116
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毕业论文关键词：外汇储备 阿格沃尔模型 影响 对策
To investigate the scale of China's foreign exchange reserves under the new situation
Abstract:China has become the country with the largest foreign exchange reserves. A fluent of foreign exchange reserves indicates that our country's comprehensive strength has improved significantly. Continues to expand the scale of China's foreign exchange reserves is the inevitable result of China's economic development, but the excessive foreign exchange reserves will have a negative impact on our country economy. The financial crisis of 2008,dominated by the dollar's foreign exchange reserves in our country are severely damaged. In recent years, some developed countries has loose monetary policy, coupled with high foreign exchange reserves in our country, that increased the yuan appreciation pressure. The yuan appreciation pressure has been the negative impact on our country economy, such as the inflation pressure. Therefore, to control the excessive foreign exchange reserves, using the excess foreign exchange reserves that can create more economic benefits ,has become a problem need to solve urgently at present stage. This article analyses the causes of China's high foreign exchange reserves through Agarwal model, the effect of the pros and cons, and puts forward countermeasures.
Key Words：foreign exchange reserves, Agarwal, impact, countermeasures
目 录
一、引言 1
（一）研究背景及意义 1
（二）关于我国外汇储备规模的相关文献综述 1
（三） 论文的主要内容 4
二、外汇储备相关理论 5
（一）外汇储备的概念 5
（二）外汇储备的作用 5
（三）外汇储备规模管理的理论研究 6
三、我国外汇储备规模实证分析 8
（一）阿格沃尔模型概念介绍 8
（二）根据我国经济发展特点推导的阿格沃尔模型 8
（三）实证分析 9
（四）结论 12
四、我国高额外汇储备的成因 13
（一）经常项目和资本项目的双顺差 13
（二）人民币汇率制度的因素 14
（三）人民币升值预期 14
（四）偿还外债余额和文护国家金融安全的需要 14
五、高额外汇储备增长的利弊分析 16
（一）高额外汇储备规模的正面作用 16
（二）高额外汇储备规模的负面影响 17
751、优化我国外汇储备规模的对策建议 21
（一）深化外汇管理体制改革 21
（二）鼓励企业“走出去” 21
（三）调整外汇储备结构 21