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摘要 从 1978 至 2005 年，中国 GDP 实现了年均 9%的增长速度，这一成绩被称为“中国奇迹”。同样，早在上世纪50年代到 90年代期间，日本和“亚洲四小龙”克服了资源匮乏对经济发展的限制，通过其他途径振兴经济并改善了居民生活水平，实现了社会的全面进步，这些成绩被誉为“东亚奇迹”。他们之间相同点是，经济发展阶段都发生在人口结构即从高出生率、高死亡率和低自然增长率转向低出生率、低死亡率和低自然增长率的转变阶段。根据一些中国机构的研究，造就“中国经济奇迹”的最重要因素之一就是“人口红利”，其对 1982-2000 年期间人均GDP 增长率的贡献达到了 26.8%。其特征是，在人口转变过程中，社会进入了劳动适龄人口比重较高、老少抚养比较低的“黄金时期”，对社会经济发展十分有利。但人口红利并非可持续，随着我国人口老龄化的加速、人口红利的逐渐消失，这种变动必然通过影响一系列变量最终传递到我国各个方面，包括经济方面的影响，如宏观层面的储蓄、消费、投资等的影响,这些人口转变意着中国今后的经济发展将不再拥有大量廉价劳动力供给的优势，当今的“用工荒”、“技工荒”和延长退休的计划等等也说明了这一点。因此，深入探讨我国的人口红利变动具有重要意义，这就是本文的出发点和目的所在。 本论文先介绍人口红利的基本信息，包括定义、基本特征及条件以及相关文献综述。其次讲述了人口红利对经济增长的内在作用机制，并实证分析考察了人口红利对我国经济的影响并给出结论。 35878
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【毕业论文关键词】 人口红利、储蓄率、抚养比、劳动参与率
Abstract The impact of the demographic pidend on China's economy From 1978 to 2005, China achieved an average annual GDP growth rate of 9%, which is called "Chinese miracle". Similarly, during the early 1950s to the 1990s, Japan and "Four Asian Tigers" overcome the lack of resources limits on economic development, they improve the living standards by other way of economic, and achieve a comprehensive social progress, which is known as the "East Asian Miracle". What simple between them is that the stage of economic development have occurred in the population structure is changing phase shift from high fertility, high mortality and low natural growth rate to low fertility, low mortality and low natural growth rate. According to some Chinese institutions, one of the most important factors to cteate "Chinese economic miracle" is the "demographic pidend", its contribution to GDP growth per capita in the period 1982-2000 reached 26.8%. Their characteristic is that in the demographic transition process, the society was higher proportion of the working-age population, low young and old dependents relatively called "golden period" which is favorable to socio-economic development. But the demographic pidend is not sustainable, as the accelerated aging deeper, the demographic pidend will disappear, this change will be bound by a number of variables affect the final delivery to every aspect of our country, including the impact of the economic aspects, such as the macro-level of savings, affect consumption and investment, which means that the future demographic transition economic development in China would no longer have a large supply of cheap labor advantage, today, "labor shortage", "shortage of skilled workers" and to extend the retirement plans and so on also illustrates this point. Therefore, depth discussion on the changes in the demographic pidend is significance, which is the starting point of this article and purpose. This paper introduces the basic information of demographic pidend first, including definition, basic characteristics and conditions and the related literature review. Secondly, about the demographic pidend of economic growth in the internal mechanism of action, and empirical analysis examines the impact of the demographic pidend on our economy and give conclusions.