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摘要消费信贷在第二次世界大战之后得到了十分迅速的发展。在此之前，西方国家调控消费主要依赖于财政与收入政策。20世纪80年代之后我国才开始出现消费信贷的，直到90年代末期我国消费信贷才开始发展迅速。我国消费信贷的发展在宏观与微观上有没有加速，其促进经济增幅的作用，本文的关键是其效果如何。46623
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本文的研究对象是以我国消费信贷对我国经济发展的影响为主的，主要是从理论与实证两个方面分析的。从凯恩斯理论来分析消费信贷对经济的影响所在；将消费信贷余额、国内生产总值作为研究变量，消费需求作为中间变量，选用中国2006到2015年的数据来建立模型，对消费信贷相对于经济增长的影响，并且运用Eviews计量软件来获得结论。
根据结果的表明，我国的内需增加，经济的增长都离不开消费信贷的发展。我国消费信贷可以正向的推进国民生产总值。虽然目前消费信贷在我国加速发展，但是我国消费信贷的发展仍然有很大的上升空间，我们可以采取对应的措施以达到促进消费信贷的发展的目的，从而促进它对经济的拉动作用。
毕业论文关键词：消费信贷；经济增长；消费需求；影响分析
ABSTRACT
Consumer credit has achieved rapid development after World War II. Before, the western countries relies on revenue and fiscal policy to regulate consumer. It didn't appear until the 1980s that consumer credit in China. The rapid development appeared in the late 1990s. The main content of this article research is that if the rapid development of our country consumer credit can stimulate consumption, promote the economic growth on the macroscopic, and how to have an obvious role in promoting economic growth.
This article takes our country consumer credit impact on the economic development of our country as the research object, and analysis from theory and the empirical. It interprets the impact on the economy of consumer credit from the Keynes theory;It takes consumer credit, gross domestic product (GDP) as the research variables, consumer demand as the intermediate variable, and selects the data from 2006 to 2015 in China to establish the model. The analysis of the effect of consumer credit on economic growth, through the measuring software, finally come to the conclusion.
The results showed that consumer credit expand domestic demand, and promote the growth of the economy. Our country consumer credit to GDP has a positive boost. Although the consumer credit in our country to speed up development, but the development of consumer credit in China still have a lot of space to promote, we should take corresponding measures to promote the development of consumer credit, constantly to promote its pull function on the economy.
Key words：consumer credit；economic growth；consumption demand；The impact analysis
目 录
摘 要 I
ABSTRACT II
第一章 绪论 1
1.1选题的背景和意义 1
1.2文献综述 2
1.3研究的方法和结构框架 3
第二章 我国消费信贷发展的现状分析 6
2.1消费信贷的定义 6
2.2我国消费信贷的发展现状 7
第三章 我国消费信贷对经济增长影响的理论分析 11
3.1消费信贷对经济增长的拉动作用分析 11
3.2消费信贷对我国经济增长拉动的适用性分析 12
第四章 我国消费信贷与经济增长的实证分析 13
4.1模型构建 13
4.2数据的来源和处理 13
4.3实证分析过程 15
4.4实证结果分析 17