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摘要不确定性理论是研究主观不确定现象的数学理论，不确定统计是基于不确定性理论的一种收集、分析专家经验数据的统计分析方法，不确定统计基于的是专家评判数据而不是历史数据。对于一个专家参与调查，现有最小二乘法和距估计法去得到一个合理的分布函数，对于多个专家数据的集成目前常用的是 Delphi方法，该方法要求有关专家多次实时地修正他们提供的数据，但在实际使用中这一过程有时不实用。本文提出两个较有效的方案用来集成多个专家的数据但无需专家作修正过程，并利用数值实验描述该方法的可行性、适应性。28850
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关键词 不确定性理论 不确定统计 Delphi方法
毕业论文设计说明书外文摘要
Title Integrated Method of Multiple Experts’ Data
Abstract
The uncertainty theory is to study of subjective uncertainty phenomenon. Un-
certain statistics is a method for collecting and analyzing expert’s experimental
data by uncertainty theory. Compared to probability statistics which is based on
historical data, uncertain statistics is based on experimental data. In the field of uncertain statistics, there are principle of least squares and method of moments to estimate the unknown parameters. And for multiple domain experts, Delphi method
is used commonly. Delphi method requires experts’ feedback on the previous round
so that they can make a new judgment about altering their opinions. However, this
step may not be practical. In order to make up for it, this paper put forward two
schemes which don’t need experts’ feedback. The feasibility and adaptability of the proposed method is described by numerical experiments.
Keywords uncertainty theory uncertain statistics Delphi method
目 次
1 引言（或绪论） …………………………………………………………………… 1
1.1 不确定性理论 …………………………………………………………………… 1
1.2 不确定统计 …………………………………………………………………… 2
1.3 Delphi方法 …………………………………………………………………… 2
1.4 研究意义 …………………………………………………………………… 3
1.5 本文主要工作和结构安排 …………………………………………………… 4
2 准备知识 ……………………………………………………………………………… 5
3 多个专家数据的集成方法 …………………………………………………………… 8
3.1 方案1 ………………………………………………………………………… 9