面向城市畅通的合适公交分担率研究

摘要在中国，随着近二十几年来城镇化和机动化的快速发展，社会关注的热点已慢慢开始转移到城市公共交通优先（简称“公交优先”）的发展上来。其中，公交优先发展的目标之一便是提高公共交通分担率（简称“公交分担率”）。本文主要研究公交优先的概念、目的和作用，了解何为公交分担率和它的计算公式；研究国内外公交分担率多种计算方式的比较；从三方面研究影响公共交通出行分担率的因素；详细描述了基于模糊推理的公共交通出行分担率预测方法。通过基于居民出行预测的公交分担率模型以及用拥堵度来描述城市是否畅通来得出面向城市畅通的合适公交分担率的数值，最后提出对于提高公交分担率的思考。 25874
毕业论文关键词公交优先公交分担率模型计算
Title Study on the proper mode share of public transport oriented city’s smooth
Abstract
In china, with the rapid development of the city in recent decades, the social hot spot has been slowly transferred to the development of city public transport priority (referred to ‘bus priority’). This paper mainly showes about the concept, purpose and function of the bus priority and the definition of the mode share of public transport and its formula; focuses on the comparison on different kinds of calculation methods of mode share of public transport at home and abroad and factors of influencing the mode share of public transport from the three aspects. A detailed description of the bus sharing rate forecasting method is showed which is based on fuzzy reasoning. Based on the residents travel prediction of bus sharing rate model and with congestion degree to describe the urban whether is smooth, this paper come out the appropriate mode share of public transport for the smooth of the city. At last this paper ,at the same time, gives some thinking of improving the.
Keywords    bus priority mode share of public transport model and calculation
目   次
引言 .. 1
.1 专业概念 1
.2 现状及存在问题 .. 3
.3 研究内容 5
.4 技术路线 6
多种口径公交分担率 .. 8
.1 公交出行（不包含步行）分担率 .. 8
.2 全方式的全天全目的公交出行分担率 . 9
.3 公共交通在不同区域的出行分担率 10
.4 机动化的公交出行分担率 11
.5 早高峰期间进城公交出行分担率   12
.6 通勤公交出行分担率   12
.7 对我国的公交分担率指标确定的启示   13
公交分担率影响因素   14
.1 研究方法 . 14
.2 影响因素 . 14
公交分担率预测模型   16
.1 基于模糊推理预测公交分担率 . 16
.2 模糊推理基本原理 16
.3 模糊模型的建立   17
.4 确定模糊推理规则 18
.5 实例计算 . 20
合适公交分担率建模并求解 .. 21
.1 基于居民出行预测分担率模型 . 21
.2 拥堵度定义 . 24
.3 合适公交分担率计算   24
提高公交分担率的思考 28
.1 设置公交专用道，提高公交运营速度   28
.2 政府宏观调控，提高公交价格优势 29
.3 采取公交鼓励政策，创造良好政策大环境 .. 29
.4 赋予信号控制优先，缩短交叉口延误   30
.5 提高公交舒适性，提高人性化服务 30 面向城市畅通的合适公交分担率研究:http://www.751com.cn/zidonghua/lunwen_19860.html