摘要电力行业是国家众多能源领域中重要的基础行业，电力对国家经济发展建设、社会与国民生活稳定方面都有着重要的作用，现代社会不能没有电力的供应。随着电力工业不断发展，电力负荷预测在发展中也越来越重要，电力预测技术研究也变得越来越重要。电力负荷预测是电力生产发展的重要依据。本文主要针对电力系统负荷预测方法做了一些相关方面的研究。45890
本文就是根据目前的电力负荷预测的研究现状，就电力负荷预测的方法做论述。电力系统负荷变化主要受两方面的影响：其一，负荷变化会受未知不确定因素的影响，从而产生波动；而另一方面，它的周期性变化使得负荷曲线具有相似性,呈现出强烈的非线性特性。本文主要介绍了神经网络的原理，人工神经网络以神经元为基础，一个多层神经网络模型一般分为三层：输入层、输出层、和中间。BP神经网络法是神经网络学习的主要方法，BP神经网络使用误差反向传播法。通过训练样本来实现从输入到输出的映射。
通过选取某地区某时段用电量数据，基于matlab平台进行了仿真，并对预测结果误差也进行了分析。
毕业论文关键词：电力负荷；预测方法；神经网络
ABSTRACT
Electric power industry is the foundation in many countries in the field of energy industry, power on the construction of national economic development, social and national stability and life have an important role, the modern society can not do without power supply. With the development of power industry, power load forecasting is becoming more and more important in the development of power load forecasting, and the research of power load forecasting is becoming more and more important. Power load forecasting is an important basis for the development of electric power production. In this paper, the power system load forecasting methods are studied.
This paper is based on the current research status of the power load forecasting, the method of power load forecasting is discussed. Power system load variation is mainly influenced by two aspects: the load changes will be affected by uncertain factors, which will lead to the fluctuation; and on the other hand, its periodic variation makes load curve is similar, showing a strong nonlinear characteristics. This paper mainly introduces the principle of neural network, neural network based on neural network, a multi-layer neural network model is generally pided into three layers: input layer, output layer, and the middle. BP neural network method is the main method of neural network learning, BP neural network using error back propagation method. The mapping from the input to the output is realized through the training samples.By selecting the electricity consumption data of a certain area in a certain period of time, the simulation is carried out based on the MATLAB platform, and the prediction error is also analyzed.
Key words: power load; forecasting method; neural network
目 录
第1章 绪论 1
1.1 课题背景和意义 1
1.2 国内外研究现状及存在的问题 1
1.3 本文的研究内容 2
1.4 本章小结 3
第2章 电力负荷预测的基本理论 4
2.1 电力负荷预测的定义 4
2.2 电力负荷预测基本原则和要求 4
2.2.1 电力负荷预测的基本原则 4
2.2.2 电力负荷预测的基本要求 5
2.3 电力负荷预测的分类 5
2.4 电力负荷预测方法的分类 6
2.5 电力负荷预测的基本工作程序 8
2.6 本章小结 9
第3章 神经网络的预测方法 10 电力负荷预测方法研究:http://www.751com.cn/zidonghua/lunwen_47507.html