广州亚运会对广州城市竞争力影响的评估

摘要本文首先将城市竞争力这一概念，分为三个指标：经济效益、产业结构、城市建设。将经济效益、产业结构和城市建设进一步细分，经济效益可分成带动投资、带动GDP、带动消费。通过曲线拟合的方法对广州2000年-2009年的相关指标与年份进行拟合，得到曲线方程，并预测2010年各项指标的数值。同样的，产业结构细分为第三产业比例和高新技术总产值，通过回归分析法预测2010年产业结构的发展情况。接着，我们运用指数平滑法对城市建设相关指标进行分析得出相关数据。在此基础上，用预测值占实际值的比重作为亚运会带动城市竞争力提升的评价指标，从而评估广州亚运会的影响力。接着，在城市竞争力的三个重要指标之间进行比较和计算，得出三个指标的权重，再通过逐层比较三个指标的重要性来为分析亚运会的影响力提供定量依据。最后，将亚运会与其他赛事对城市竞争力各项指标的影响作对比，通过熵权法确定指标权重，从而综合评估亚运会对广州城市竞争力的影响力大小。46745

In this paper, firstly the concept of urban competitiveness, pided into three aspects: economic, industrial structure, urban construction. The economic benefit, the industrial structure and urban construction further, economic benefits can be pided into investment, stimulate consumption, promote GDP. To fit the Guangzhou 2000 -2009 year and year indicators through the method of curve fitting, get the curve equation, and numerical prediction of the indicators in 2010. Similarly, the proportion of the third industry segments of the industry structure and high and new technology development forecast in 2010 total output value, industrial structure through regression analysis method. Then, we use exponential smoothing method for analysis of relevant indicators to obtain relevant data on urban construction. On this basis, the evaluation index for the actual value of the proportion of urban competitiveness as the Asian Games with the predicted value, and to evaluate the influence of the Asian Games in Guangzhou. Then, compared and calculated between the three important indexes of urban competitiveness, weighted three indicators, and then to provide quantitative basis for the analysis of the importance of the Asian Games influence through layer by layer between the three indexes. Finally, the Asian Games, compared with other races on the indicators of the competitiveness of the city, to determine the index weight by entropy method, and comprehensive evaluation on the urban competitiveness of Guangzhou Asian Games, the size of the impact.

毕业论文关键词：回归分析；城市竞争力；熵权法；层次分析法

Keyword: Regression analysis; city competitiveness; entropy method; analytic hierarchy process

1 引言 4

2 问题分析 4

3 前提和假设 4

4 符号说明 5

5 实例分析 5

5.1 问题一 5

5.1.1 数据分析初探 6

5.1.2 经济效益 7

5.1.2 产业结构 13

5.2 问题二 16

5.2.1 基于层次分析法的横向比较模型 16

5.3 问题三 19

5.3.1基于熵权法的纵向影响力比较模型 19

6优缺点及改进 21

6.1优点 21

6.2缺点广州亚运会对广州城市竞争力影响的评估:http://www.751com.cn/guanli/lunwen_48522.html