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摘要：本币汇率是影响一国出口产品价格和国际竞争力的重要因素，对外部市场依存度高的国家而言尤为重要。进入21世纪以来，中国资本收支和国际贸易的双顺差趋势越发地明显，这导致了我国的国际收支出现了大量的顺差，我国的对外依存度越来越高。然而，近年来人民币升值是一个具有结构性、持续性的现象，因此研究人民币升值对于进出口贸易的影响和对策尤为重要。本文基于时间序列和面板数据的实证研究，分析了人民币升值对进出口贸易的影响。应对人民币升值对进出口贸易影响的对策，本文也从出口企业的利益和国民经济出发，建议基于货币经济、实体经济以及企业经济三个层面的应对方案。20184
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毕业论文关键词：人民币汇率；进出口贸易
Analysis on the Impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuation Upon Import & Export Trade
Abstract: Currency is the important factor that affects a country's export prices and international competitiveness. It is also particularly important to countries which are highly dependent on external market. Since the 21st century, the China’s double surplus trends of capital expenditure and receipts and international trading are more and more obviously, which lead a huge surplus in China’s balance of payments and increasing external dependency. However, in recent years, the appreciation of the RMB is a structural and durative phenomenon. So it is especially important to research the impact of RMB’s appreciation upon import & export trade. In this paper, the empirical research dependents on time series and panel data and analyze the influence of RMB appreciation on import and export trade. Otherwise, about the countermeasures to cope with the impact of the appreciation of the RMB on import and export trade, the article offers the economic plans form the interests of export enterprises and national economy. And these plans also based on three aspects which are monetary economy, real economy and enterprise economy.
Key words: RMB exchange rate; Import & Export Trade;
目录
1人民币汇率变动与进出口贸易概况 2
1.1汇率的概述 2
1.1.1汇率 2
1.1.2 名义汇率 3
1.1.3实际汇率 3
2人民币汇率与中国进出口贸易规模的变动状况 3
2.1改革开放以来中国出口贸易发展趋势 3
2.1.1出口贸易规模变化趋势 4
2.1.2金融危机以来出口减少的原因分析 5
2.2改革开放以后人民币汇率变化趋势 5
2.3中国进出口贸易状况的变化 5
2.3.1对外贸易规模不断扩大 5
2.3.2外贸依存度逐年上升 6
3人民币汇率变动对我国进出口贸易的影响分析 6
3.1汇率调整对进出口的冲击 6
3.1.1人民币汇率与美国贸易逆差 6
3.1.2人民币升值对各个经济体进出口的数量影响 8
3.1.3人民币升值对加工贸易与一般贸易的影响 9
3.2人民币汇率改革对贸易收支的影响 11
3.2.1出口增速下滑 11
3.2.2人民币快速升值，对出口企业构成冲击 11
3.3人民币汇率变动对贸易结构的影响 13
4应对人民币汇率变动对我国对外贸易影响的策略 13
4.1促进收支平衡，降低升值幅度 14
4.2货币国际化缓解升值不对称性 14
4.3减少升值对出口竞争力的影响 14
致谢 15
参考文献 16