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摘要:改革开放以来，我国的GDP总量逐年攀升，每年以平均7.8%的速度增长，在2010年已经成为世界上的第二大经济体。然而其中也不免存在着一些问题，比如投资结构不合理、资源配置的不合理、环境恶化等。因此有必要更加关注产业结构的发展轨迹，并加以调整，从而使得经济更加健康的发展下去。35896
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上海作为我国的经济中心，产业结构的调整一直领先其他地区，这其中部分得益于国家给予的大量政策支持。从本文的时间范围（1990-2013）来看，上海的第一产业产出大体上年年增加，然而它的比重持续下降，从最初的1990年4.4%下降2013年的0.59%；第二产业整体上处于一个不断增长的趋势，同第一产业一样，它的比重也在不断地下降中，从1990年的64.7%到2013的37.2%；第三产业产值逐年上升，从最初的30.9%上升到1998的50.8%，就在这一年超过了第二产业，在此之后一直保持增加,至2013年达到62.2%。
本文根据1990-2013年的上海GDP以及各产业的产出数据，运用Eviews软件对数据进行了计量经济分析，通过多组回归分析，比较后求得GDP与各产业产出之间的关系。目前，上海市第二产业发展有所放缓，但仍然对GDP贡献最大，第三产业次之。根据本文的分析，上海市应该继续发展第三产业，提高它在GDP中的比例。
毕业论文关键词：产业；产业结构；经济增长；政策建议
Contribution of Industrial Structure Upgrade for Shanghai Economic Growth
Abstract:Since reform and opening o, China's total GDP has increased steadily, with an average annual growth rate of 7.8%. In 2010, it has became the second largest economy in the world. However, there are some problems inevitably, such as the investment structure is irrational, irrational allocation of resources, and environmental degradation. In order to make the economy more healthy grow, we need to pay more attention to the the track of development of the industrial structure , and make adjustments
As China's economic center Shanghai, the adjustment of industrial structure has been ahead of other regions,it thanks to a large number of policies which support the State in part. From the time of this article (1990-2013), the Shanghai's first industrial output increased substantially every year, but its share continued to decline, decline of 0.59 percent in 2013 from 4.4% in the initial 1990; The second industry is a growing trend, with the primary industry, as its specific gravity is continually decreased in 64.7% from 1990 to 2013 of 37.2%; the tertiary industry output value increased year by year, from the initial 30.9% in 1998 rising to 50.8% ,in this year it surpass the second industry, after which it has kept increasing until 2013 to reach 62.2%.
Based on the 1990 - 2013 data of Shanghai’s GDP and output of every industry, using the data to make econometric analysis by Eviews, I make multiple sets of regression analysis, by comparison calculating relationship between the GDP and industry output. At present, the development of secondary industry in Shanghai has slowed, but still the largest contribution to GDP, the tertiary industry followed . According to the analysis in this paper, Shanghai should continue to develop the tertiary industry and increase its share in GDP.
Key Words:Industry;Industry Structure; Economic Growth; Policy advice
目录
一、 绪论 1
(一) 研究的背景与意义 1
1、研究背景 1
2、研究意义 1
(二) 国内外相关研究进展 2
1、第一种方法的代表学者及其理论 2
2、第二个方法的代表学者及其理论 2
二、 理论基础及Eviews软件介绍 4