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摘要：房地产投资与区域经济增长的相互关系因房地产市场的火爆一直饱受关注，学者们希望通过研究两者的关系来为房地产政策提供依据。本文根据《关于调整城市规模划分标准的通知》，将全国300余个地级市划分成超大城市、特大城市、大城市、中等城市，研究不同规模城市的房地产业和GDP的不同特点。首先以柯布道格拉斯生产函数为依据构建模型，建立房地产投资、非房地产投资、区域人口与经济增长（GDP）的面板数据库，通过单位根检验和协整检验探讨四种城市规模分组下房地产投资、非房地产投资、劳动力人口和经济发展是否存在长期稳定的均衡关系，然后通过格兰杰因果检验探讨房地产开发投资和GDP增长的因果关系，结果显示当滞后期为0,1,2时，超大城市和特大城市组的房地产开发投资额和GDP增长皆互为格兰杰因果关系，超大城市和特大城市的房地产繁荣与GDP皆互相促进；滞后期为2时，大城市房地产开发投资是经济发展的格兰杰原因，经济增长不是房地产开发投资的格兰杰因，表明在大城市组，存在刺激房地产市场，可以提振经济增长，但是这种经济增长并不健康；无论滞后期为0,1，或2，中等城市的房地产开发投资和经济增长都无格兰杰因果关系。38807
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毕业论文关键词：城市规模；房地产开发投资；经济增长；面板数据
An empirical study: the relationship between GDP and real estate investment of Cities in China
Abstract： The relationship between real estate investment and regional economic growth has been concerned because of the hot real estate market. Scholars hope to provide the basis for the real estate policy by studying the relationship between them. According to the State Department in November 21, 2014 issued "on the adjustment of city size standards notice", cities are pided into huge city, large city, big city, medium-sized city according to their permanent resident population, the study will research the relationship between the different characteristics of different scale city real estate industry and economic growth. First according to Cobb Douglas production function, the author establish a panel database of real estate investment, real estate investment, regional population and economic growth (GDP), through the unit root test and cointegration test showed that, under whatever kind of city scale, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among real estate investment, real estate investment, and labor. the causal relationship and then through the Grainger test to determine the real estate investment and economic growth, the results show: when the lag is 0,1, or 2, the real estate investment and economic growth are mutual granger causality in both the group of huge cities and large cities. The boom of real estate and economy are mutually promoted. When the lag is 2, real estate is the granger cause of economic growth, but economic growth is not granger cause of the real estate. The economy will develop if the government stimulate real estate market. But in middle-size cities, no matter what the lag is, there is no relationship between real estate investment and economic growth.
Key words: city scale；real estate investment；economic growth；panel data
目 录
摘要4
关键词4
Abstract4
Key words4
引言（或绪论）4
一、文献综述5
二、研究方法7
（一）面板数据7
1．面板数据简介7
2．面板数据的三种形式7
（1）混合回归模型7
（2）固定截距模型8
（3）变系数模型8
3. 面板数据模型形式设定8
（1）Hausman检验8
（2）F检验8
4.格兰杰因果检验9
（二）单位根检验10
（三）协整检验10
三、对全国300个地级市2000到2015年数据的实证研究10
（一）基本方程与数据来源10