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摘要中国的人民币汇率以及国际收支问题都是国内外一直以来关注的焦点。由于我国国际收支双顺差的持续存在,导致了外汇供给过多，外币需求减少，本币需求增多从而造成本币升值。文章探求了经常项目顺差和资本项目顺差的原因，从经常项目来看，其贸易账户的持续巨额顺差是整个经常项目顺差的主要来源，并且有不断扩大的趋势。从资本和金融账户来看，外国在华直接投资顺差的幅度逐年扩大,是资本和金融账户占比最大的来源。文章接着从经常项目顺差和资本项目顺差以及双顺差格局分析了国际收支双顺差对人民币汇率的影响机制和内容，其中经常项目顺差主要来自货物贸易顺差,导致了出口增加，使外汇供给增加，从而导致外汇贬值本币升值。而双顺差所带来的巨大的外汇供给造成人民币汇率实际升值，同时也引发了对人民币升值的预期，受到了西方各国带来的压力。最后提出了对我国国际收支失衡调节的政策建议，认为要合理优化改革，更好的利用外资，调整政策，使中国经济平稳较快发展，能够更好地对宏观经济活动进行调控，以实现宏观经济目标。45482
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毕业论文关键词：国际收支双顺差； 外商直接投资； 人民币汇率
Abstract
Chinese exchange rate and balance of payments problem has been the focus of attention at home and abroad for a long time. Due to the continuous presence of Chinese international balance of payments surplus, foreign exchange reserve currency demand is excessive, and currency appreciation increased. I explore the reason of current account surplus and capital account surplus. From the current account, the sustained huge trade surplus of trade account is the main source of the current account surplus, and the trend of it is growing. Then I analyze from the current account surplus, capital account surplus and double surplus pattern about the influence mechanism to the RMB exchange rate. Current account surplus mainly comes from goods trade surplus, caused the export increasing and increasing currency supply, leading to foreign currency devalued and domestic currencies appreciate. The huge foreign exchange reserves enable our country to have a powerful strength in the foreign exchange market intervention and the choice of exchange rate level. But at the same time, the double surplus patterns caused a real appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, also causes the expected appreciation of the RMB, so the appreciation of the RMB will fall into the "cycle process of self realization”. Finally, proposing how to adjust the imbalance in Chinese international policy. I recommend that government should have the reasonable optimization reform and better use of foreign investments, adjust the policies, and create steady and rapid the development of Chinese economy. So they are able to carry out macroeconomic regulation and control activities better, and achieve the goal of macro economy.
Key Words：The double surplus of international balance of payment；Foreign direct investment； Exchange rate
目 录
摘 要 I Abstract II
一、引言1
（一）研究背景与意义1
（二）文献综述1
（三）研究思路与方法2
二、人民币汇率波动状况 3
三、我国国际收支双顺差现状4
(一)国际收支经常项目分析 4
(二)国际收支资本项目分析 6
四、我国国际收支双顺差格局对人民币汇率的影响 8
（一）经常项目顺差对人民币汇率的影响9
（二）资本与金融项目顺差对人民币汇率的影响9
（三）国际收支双顺差格局对人民币的总体影响9
五、调节国际收支失衡促进人民币汇率稳定的建议11
（一）缓解经常项目顺差促进人民币汇率稳定11
（二）缓解资本项目顺差促进人民币汇率稳定12