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摘要：外汇储备又称外汇存底，指未来应付国际支付的需要，各国的中央银行及其他银行机构所集中掌握的外汇资产。外汇储备能够用来调节国际收支、干预外汇市场，对任何一个国家来说都是必不可少的。持有外汇储备一方面能带来收益，另一方面也会产生成本，因此一国应保持适量的外汇储备。近期的“811汇改”和人民币将很快加入SDR，人民币国际化的步伐越来越快，适度的外汇储备对于保证我国的经济安全也越来越重要，保持一个合适的储备规模将有助于我国经济的健康发展。本文首先以外汇储备由于功能转变所带来的外汇储备管理由传统管理向积极管理转变切入；随后对比充足性与适度性两者不同的定义，阐述适度的外汇储备在当下应满足的条件；然后借助不同模型算出新形势下我国外汇储备的适度区间，得出结论。50468
毕业论文关键词：811汇改、外汇储备的适度性、IMF分析法
Our foreign exchange reserves of moderation in the New Situation
Abstract: Foreign exchange reserves, also known as foreign exchange reserves, the central bank and other banking institutions to cope with the future needs of international payments, the countries of the centralized control of foreign exchange assets. Foreign exchange reserves can be used to adjust the balance of payments, foreign exchange market intervention, for any country is indispensable. Foreign exchange reserves held by one hand to generate revenue, on the other hand also have a cost, so that a State should maintain the right amount of foreign exchange reserves. Recent "811 exchange reform," and the renminbi will soon join the SDR, the internationalization of RMB faster and faster pace, modest foreign exchange reserves to ensure the country's economic security has become increasingly important to maintain an appropriate size of reserves will help in the healthy development of China's economy. Firstly, due to the function of foreign exchange reserves brought about by changes in foreign exchange reserves management cut from traditional management to actively manage change; and the adequacy of the subsequent comparison of the two different definitions of moderate, modest foreign exchange reserves set forth in the present conditions to be met; and With a modest range of different models is calculated under the new situation of China's foreign exchange reserves, it concluded.
Key Words：811 exchange reform, Moderation of foreign exchange reserves, IMF analysis
目录
一、引言 6
（一）选题背景及意义 6
（二）相关概念界定 6
二、国际国内经济形式的深刻变化 10
（一）美国 10
（二）巴西 10
（三）英国 11
（四）外汇储备适度性 11
三、新形势下我国的外汇储备 13
四、我国外汇储备拐点下行的原因 14
（一）市场干预 14
（二）变化 14
（三）汇改后我国基础性对外支付能力 17
（四）对外汇储备不足的担忧原因 18
五、外汇储备适度性的模型分析 20
（一）特里芬法则及其不足之处