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摘要:房地产业是我国国民经济的支柱，近几年来随着中国经济的快速增长，人们收入水平也不断的提高以及固定资产投资规模不断的扩大，我国房地产的发展也进入到了一个新的周期。由于土地的有限性，从而人们对房地产价格的不断上涨历来就存在着很乐观的预期。我国房地产价格快速上涨，有其理性的成分，包括：房地产投资成本上升，城镇化水平提高，个人收入提高而引发的对居住条件的改善要求甚至是投资、投机需求。房地产投机现象是房地产泡沫产生的主要因素，而投资市场中形成的虚拟需求需要消费市场中刚性需求作为基础，否则便成为泡沫。
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房地产泡沫是一个很现实、也是一个急待解决的经济问题、社会问题，它已经逐步影响到了普通居民的工作生活、政府的宏观调控以及经济运行。我国的房地产市场是否存在泡沫，本文围绕这一问题展开。在综合介绍国内外关于泡沫的基础理论后，本论文主要探讨我国房地产现状、房地产泡沫的成因以及危害，相应提出几点防范措施，在实证方面将尝试着给出判断房地产泡沫存在与否的定性标准，以保障房地长业沿着持续健康的道路发展。9937
关键词：房地产泡沫；投机；成因；危害；防范
The bubble examination of estate market in China
Abstract：The real estate industry is the backbone of our national economy, in recent years as China's rapid economic growth, people's income levels continue to improve and scale of fixed asset investment continued to expand, the development of China's real estate into a new cycle. Due to limited land, rising real estate prices have historically been very optimistic expectations. China's real estate prices rose rapidly, rational ingredients, including: real estate investment rising costs, the level of urbanization increased personal incomes and lead to the improvement of living conditions require even investment and speculative demand. Real estate speculation is a major factor in the real estate bubble and the virtual demand in the investment market need rigid demand in the consumer market as a basis, otherwise it would become a bubble.
The real estate bubble is a very realistic, but also a pressing economic and social problems, it has gradually affected the working life of ordinary residents, the government's macro-control and economic operation. China's real estate market is the existence of a bubble, This paper focuses on the issues. Overview home and abroad on the basis of the bubble theory, this paper focuses on the status quo of China's real estate, Freddie Mac long bubble causes harm to make a few precautions accordingly, empirical attempts to determine the real estate bubble is given to the presence or absence qualitative criteria, industry in order to protect the premises of the long road of sustained and healthy development.
Key words：real estate bubble；congenial；causes；disadvantage；prevention
目 录
1 绪论 1
1.1 研究背景和意义 1
1.1.1 研究背景 1
1.1.2 研究意义 2
1.2 研究理论基础 3
1.3 国内外现状研究 4
1.4 研究内容 7
1.5 本章小结 8
2 房地产泡沫相关理论概述 9
2.1 房地产泡沫的概念 9
2.1.1 房地产泡沫的表现形式 9
2.1.2 房地产泡沫的形成机制 9
2.2 房地产泡沫衡量标准 11
2.2.1 先行指标 11
2.2.2 同步指标 13
2.2.3 滞后指标 15
2.3房地产泡沫的危害性 16
2.3.1造成虚假的财富效应，扭曲消费行为 16