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摘要 随着我国经济的快速发展与人们需求的日益提高，房地产企业得到了迅速发展，在经济中的地位也越来越大，无疑成为了我国经济的重要产业之一。本文对房地产财务风险进行了概述，并结合国内外研究现状，通过外部因素和内部因素更加全面对房地产企业风险进行了成因分析，结合单变量指标和 Z评分模型、概率模型和生存分析法四种方法，从现金流的角都来探究我国房地产企业财务风险预警的方法，借助于财务风险预警模型对我国房地产企业财务风险进行实时监控，准确预警，使财务风险发生的可能性降低[1]。希望可以从中探索出一些有效的方法来提升房地产企业财务风险预警与防范水平。58923
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毕业论文关键词：房地企业；财务风险；预警分析；风险防范
Real Estate Enterprise Financial Risk Early Warning and Prevention
Abstract With the rapid development of China's economy and the increasing demand of people, real estate enterprises have been developing rapidly. In the economy, the status of the economy is becoming more and more important, and it has undoubtedly become one of the important industries of our country.The financial risk of real estate are summarized, and combining with the research status at home and abroad, through the external and internal factors more comprehensive on the real estate business risk cause analysis, combined with the two models of single variable index and Z score model,From cash flow angles to explore the methods of financial risk early warning of China's real estate enterprises, using in financial risk early warning model of China's real estate enterprise financial risk for real-time monitoring, accurate early warning, financial risk the possibility of reduced.Hope to explore some effective ways to improve the real estate enterprise financial risk early warning and prevention level.
Keywords: real estate enterprise; financial risk; early warning analysis; risk prevention
目录
0 引言 1
1 房地产企业财务风险的理论概述 2
1.1 房地产企业财务风险的涵义 2
1.2 我国房地产企业财务风险现状 .. 3
1.3 房地产企业财务风险的特征 4
1.4 房地产企业财务风险的分类 5
2 房地产企业财务风险的成因分析 6
2.1 外部因素 6
2.2 内部因素 7
3 房地产企业财务风险预警系统的构成与建立 .. 9
3.1 财务风险预警系统的概述 .. 9
3.2 财务风险预警系统的分类 .. 9
3.2.1 单变量财务风险预警模型. 9
3.2.2 Z—Score 财务风险预警模型. 9
3.2.3 概率模型... 9
3.2.4生存分析法 10
4 模型的选择——Z-SCORE 财务预警模型 . 10
4.1 Z-SCORE 财务预警模型的优点 . 10
4.2 基于Z-SCORE 的实证分析法 ... 10
4.3 基于实证分析法的对于 30家房地产企业的分析 .. 13
5 房地产企业规避财务风险的防范与措施 . 13
5.1 提高企业风险意识 ... 14
5.2 加强房地产企业内部控制 . 14
5.3 加强全面预算的执行 . 14
5.4 建立企业财务风险预警体系 ... 15
5.5 提高房地产企业外部环境变化的应对能力 ... 15
结 论 16