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    摘要：采用交叉试验设计和协方差分析法考察了镜月湖水体溶氧的时空变化，并试图建立溶氧的可预测模型。结果表明，协变量温度、主因子时间、采样点、水层对溶氧的影响极显著(P<0.01)，三因子间一级和二级互作对溶氧的影响极显著(P<0.01)。建立了溶氧与三因子的数学模型，失拟检验结果表明该模型恰当；模型拟合度R2 =99.97%，矫正Adj.R2 =99.95%，预测Pred.R2=99.92%，表明该模型拟合极好，可用于实际预测。溶氧在时间上的规律是日出时达到谷值，日落时达到峰值；在空间上的变化规律是西侧高、东侧低，浅层高、深层低。研究结果对于预测水体的实际溶氧具有一定指导意义。67946

    毕业论文关键词： 镜月湖、溶解氧、昼夜变化、时间、水层、位点

    Abstract：The spatial and temporal variation of dissolved oxygen (DO) was examined using the crossover experimental design and analysis of covariance method in the study, attempting to establish a reliable model for the prediction of dissolved oxygen.  The results showed that the effects of temperature, time of DO measurement, sampling spot, water layer were highly significant (P<0.01); the first-order and second-order interaction effects between 3 factors on dissolved oxygen were highly significant (P<0.01). the mathematical model of dissolved oxygen towards the above three factors was built, with R2, Adj. R2 and Pred. R2 more than 99%, - indicating that the goodness-of-fit and predictive capability of the model were very satisfactory, and could be employed to forecast the change of dissolved oxygen. Dissolved oxygen reached the minimum at sunrise, and the maximum at sunset. The spatial variation was that dissolved oxygen content in the west side was higher than in the east, and was even lower at the bottom water layer. DO content gradually dropped with increased depth of water. Research results could provide some guidelines for the accurate projection of DO content in the Mirror Moon Lake.

    Key words：Mirror Moon Lake, dissolved oxygen, nychthemeral variation, time, water layer, sampling spot

    目   录

    1.引言 5

    2. 材料与方法 5

    2.1 采样点 5

    2.2 仪器与试剂 6

    2.2.1仪器设备 6

    2.2.2试剂与材料 6

    2.3 实验准备 6

    2.4 取样 7

    2.5 试验设计 7

    2.6 数据处理 7

    3.结果与分析 7

    3.1 因子的影响 8

    3.2 因子间互作 9

    3.3 建立模型 10

    3.3 模型可靠性 11

    3.4 因子多重比较 13

    3.4.1 位点间的多重比较 13

    3.4.2 时间的多重比较 14

    3.4.3 水层的多重比较 14

    4. 讨论 15

    4.1 昼夜变化规律 15

    4.2 垂直变化规律 15

    4.3水平变化规律 15

    4.4因子间互作规律 16

    4.5模型建立 16

    4.6意义和局限性 16

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