灰色预测是应用灰色模型 GM（1,1）对灰色系统进行分析、建模、求解、预测的过程。远程火炮初速是影响射弹散布的一个重要因素，本文用具体的数值例子表明灰色预测理论适合用来对火炮初速进行预测。所做主要工作如下： （1）通过对灰色预测理论知识的学习，熟悉基本 GM（1,1）的模型算法及其精度检验。同时阅读大量的文献,查阅有关GM（1,1）模型的优化算法。 （2）查阅相关资料了解影响火炮初速的主要因素，研究火炮射击过程中的初速变化情况和目前现有的典型火炮初速预测方法。 （3）基于对火炮射击过程中的各种影响因素和初速变化情况的分析，选取了三组数据来建立基本 GM（1,1）火炮初速预测模型，并用 Matlab 编程实现算法，进行算例仿真。同时从众多的优化方法中选取了三种较好方法来建立改进GM（1,1）初速预测模型。仿真结果表明基本 GM（1,1）模型和改进模型均可达到较高的精度，尤其是文中选取的改进的残差模型，突破了传统残差序列的可建模尾段条件，其精度可达到 0.25%以上，达到了工程上的应用指标，实际中可使用该模型进行火炮初速预测。7782
关键词 灰色预测 GM（1,1）模型 改进模型 火炮初速预测
Title Grey prediction theory and its application in the artillery muzzle velocity prediction
Abstract
The grey prediction is the application of grey model GM (1, 1) of grey
system analysis, modeling, prediction and solving process. The long-
range artillery muzzle velocity is an important factor in the impact
of projectiles spread, In this paper, numerical examples show that the
grey forecasting theory can be used to predict the gun velocity. The
main work is as follows.
（1） Be familiar with the basic GM (1,1) model algorithm and its
accuracy test through the study of the grey prediction theory,
meanwhile, read a lot of literatures related to GM (1,1) model to
find the optimization algorithm.
（2） Search the relevant information to understand the main factors
that affecting the artillery muzzle velocity , study how
artillery muzzle velocity changes and the current typical
artillery muzzle velocity prediction methods .
（3） Based on the analysis of various factors in the process of
artillery fire and the changes of muzzle velocity , select
three sets of data to establish a basic GM (1,1) artillery muzzle
velocity prediction model , and use the Matlab to realize it. At
the same time ,from numerous optimization method I choose three
kind of methods to establish the improved GM (1,1) muzzle
velocity prediction model. The simulation results show that the
basic GM (1,1) model and the improved model can both reach high
accuracy, especially the modified residual error model which breaking the traditional residuals modeling conditions, its
precision can be above 0.25%, reaching the engineering
application of indicators , this model can be used in practice .
Keywords grey forecasting GM (1, 1) model improved model gun muzzle
velocity prediction
目 次
1 绪论 1
1.1 课题研究背景 1
1.2 灰色预测理论概述 2
1.3 基于灰色预测理论的火炮初速预测的研究现状 2
1.4 课题研究内容 3
1.5 论文结构安排 3
2 灰色预测理论 5
2.1 灰色预测方法的提出 5
2.2 灰色预测的典型模型 5 灰色预测理论及其在火炮初速预测中的应用研究:http://www.751com.cn/zidonghua/lunwen_5858.html