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摘要我国是世界上煤与瓦斯突出最为严重的国家之一，瓦斯突出危险性预测是防突工作的首要环节。根据导致煤与瓦斯突出发生的主要因素，确定合适的突出危险性预测指标和指标的临界值，是指导突出防治工作的重要技术基础。煤层突出危险性预测分为两种：区域危险性预测和工作面危险性预测。本文以卧龙湖8煤层为研究对象，对局部预测环节中的各预测指标的敏感性进行定量分析，用于指导矿井安全生产，论文主要内容如下： 47254
首先，本文概述了国内外对突出预测的研究现状，目前，世界上的各国所使用的煤与瓦斯突出预测指标多达有100多种，但是真正可靠并在煤矿中能得到应用的只是很少一部分，更先进的突出预测方法仍然在探索中。其次，以卧龙湖煤矿为背景，结合突出情况分析确定了8煤层的突出主导因素。再次，根据8煤层瓦斯赋存规律和现场验证分析，分析了区域指标体系以及局部指标体系。之后采用实验室实验和数理统计的两种方法，对比分析了卧龙湖8煤层的钻屑解吸敏感指标Δh2及K1值之间相关关系，确定其敏感指标。最终根据得到的数据结果获得如下结论：在采用实验室实验和利用现场数据做数理统计的两种方法中，预测指标K1和Δh2都可以作为判断煤矿工作面是否具有突出危险性的敏感指标。而钻屑量S则可以较好的探测煤矿现场的地应力情况。
该论文有参考文献24篇。
毕业论文关键词：煤与瓦斯突出；指标体系；突出预测；敏感性
Abstract
China is one of the nations that have grievous coal and outburst problem, gas outburst prediction is the first and most important step of outburst prevention. In the processing of underground mining, according to the risk factors leading to coal and gas outburst, selecting appropriate sensitive index and its critical value for the forecast of risk of gas outburst are the important technical foundation work to guide preventing outburst. Gas outburst prediction contains regional prediction and local prediction, The paper cuttings of local forecasting index, determine the Wolong Lake coal mine 8 sensitivity of predicting coal seam outburst.
First of all, the paper summarizes research on prediction. Secondly, the Wolong Lake coal mine is combined with outstanding analysis of the leading factors of 8 coal seam outburst. And 8 gas occurrence law and field-proven analysis, analysis of the index system of regional and local indicators. Later using a laboratory experiment and the mathematical statistics method to comparatively analyze the connection between sensitive index Δh2 and K1 of the Wolong Lake coal seam 8 desorption, identify their sensitive indicators. According to the data, finally get the conclusion : In laboratory experiments and field data in two methods of mathematical statistics, predictors of K1 and Δh2 can be used as a coal mining working face with outburst sensitive index. And drilling bits s can better detect mine site in-situ stress conditions.
The paper has 24 references.
Key words：Coal and gas outburst; index system; outburst prediction; sensitive index
目 录
摘 要 1
1绪论 1
1.1 突出预测研究现状及发展趋势 1
1.1.1国外突出预测研究现状 1
1.1.2国内煤与瓦斯突出工作面预测指标研究现状 2
1.2 研究内容与目的 3
2 卧龙湖矿井概况 4
2.1 煤层地质 4
2.1.1 煤层