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摘 要： 本文运用变差系数、泰尔指数和空间自相关模型等方法，以县域为基本空间单元，以人均GDP为衡量指标，对环太湖经济圈县域经济发展差异和经济空间结构演变的时候特征进行了分析。变差系数与泰尔指数的对比分析表明，环太湖经济圈县域经济差异逐渐降低。通过泰尔指数的地理分解，发现苏南和浙北之间的经济差异逐渐减小，苏南内部差异对总体差异的影响较大，浙北内部差异最小。通过县域人均GDP的全域自相关分析表明，环太湖经济圈县域经济发展水平较高的区域在空间上趋于集中。对比CV和Moran's I的变化趋势，在2004年到2013年间，二者的变化趋势基本是相反的。局部自相关分析将环太湖经济圈的县域分为HH型，还有就是没有通过检验的一般空间随机过程。HH型县域有所增加且多分布于环太湖经济圈东北部地区。以2004、2007、2009和2013年各县市的人均GDP与环太湖经济圈平均水平的比值，分析各县域在2004～2007、2007～2009和2009～2013年间各市县的经济增长对环太湖经济圈经济差异收敛或发散的影响，得出四种类型：向下收敛、向上收敛、向下发散和向上发散。26545
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毕业论文关键词：环太湖经济圈；经济空间结构；变差系数；泰尔系数；空间自相关；收敛与发散
Analysis of County Economic Spatial-Temporal Disparities in the Circum-Taihu Lake Economic Zone
Abstract:Coefficient of variation,Theil index and statistical techniques were applied to analyze the evolution of economic spatial-temporal disparities and spatial economic structure in Circum-Taihu Lake Economic Zone by using county as a spatial unit and per capita GDP as measuring index for the level of regional economic development.Analysis of coefficient of variationand Theil index indicated that the interregional inequalities in Circum-Taihu Lake Economic Zone have been narrowed. By the decomposition of Theil index, it shows that the interregional inequalities between the southern Jiangsu(Sunan)and the northern Zhejiang (Zhebei) have been narrowed,the intraregional inequalities of the southern Jiangsu(Sunan) is the major proportion of the global spatial disparity and the intraregional inequalities of the nothern Zhejiang(Zhebei) is the least.From the temporal change of the spatial autocorrelation,we found that cities and countries in Circum-Taihu Lake Economic Zone which develop fast tends to concentrate.Contrasting the variation tendency of CV and Moran’s I,they are reversed during the study period from 2004 to 2013.Moran's I scatter plot pided the 21 counties of Circum-Taihu Lake Economic Zone into HH counties and the counties that has no space for inspection by the general stochastic process.HH counties have increased and are located in the Northeast Circum-Taihu Lake Economic Zone.To illustrate the preposition that county and city trajectories of economic growth determine the changes regional inequality, each county and city per capita GDP was compared to the corresponding Circum-Taihu Lake Economic Zone average in 2004,2007,2009 and 2013 to see if a county or city had been converging to the average or perging from 2004-2007,2007-2009 and 2009-2013. We find four regional types are pided by the trends of all cities and counties such as downwardly converging , upwardly converging, upwardly perging and downwardly perging .
Key words:Circum-Taihu Lake Economic Zone;spatial economic structure;coefficient of variation;Theil index;spatial autocorrelation;convergence and pergence
目 录
1 引 言 1
2 研究区域、数据选取与研究方法 1
2.1 研究区域及数据选取 1
2.2 研究方法 2
2.2.1 区域差异系数 2
2.2.2 空间自相关模型 2
3 实证分析 3
3.1 环太湖经济圈县域经济差异的演变过程 3