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摘要：二十世纪初，我国开始大规模推行房改制度，房地产业的发展与金融业的发展逐渐联系起来，而利率政策是货币政策的一个重要工具,对稳定房地产市场的发展，合理控制房地产价格区间具有重要意义。因此，本文以利率变动对我国房地产价格的影响为研究对象，分析了房地产价格的形成机制和影响因素,从房地产市场的供给与需求这两个方面来分析利率对房价的影响。在此基础上，回顾利率对我国房价的调控历程并根据实际情况进行理论分析 ,认为利率变动对我国房价的影响具有一定的滞后性,但影响较短暂也较小，调控并没有达到预期的效果。对此,本文选取了2000-2013年各季度的房价指标和利率等数据，运用回归分析进行了进一步的论证,理论和实证的结果共同显示，利率对我国房价的影响相对较弱，这主要是由于利率政策的时滞性、利率的低敏感性、政府调控的低动力性和房地产市场的不完全竞争性等因素造成的。针对这些现象，本文认为应该从丰富房地产市场的融资途径、提高利率的敏感性、加强政府的宏观调控、建立良好的金融环境、完善房地产市场的运行机制五个方面入手,逐步提高利率对房价的影响。29396
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毕业论文关键词： 利率 房地产价格 供给 需求
The Analysis of The Influence of Interest Rate Changes on China’s Real Estate Price
Abstract: At the beginning of the 20th century, our country begin to implement large-scale promotion of housing system reform, the development of the real estate industry and financial industry are gradually get together, and it’s of great significance to stabilize the development of the real estate market and control the real estate prices within a reasonable range Therefore, this article uses the influence of interest rate changes on China's real estate prices as the research object, analyzes the real estate price formation mechanism and influence factors and the impact of interest rates on house prices from the two aspects of supply and demand. On this basis, we review the process of the regulation of housing prices in China and carries out theoretical analysis according to the actual situation, thinking that the impact of the change of interest rate have certain hysteresis and it is small and short, what’s more, the regulation does not achieve the desired effect. To this, this paper selects the quarterly data of house price and interest rate of 2000-2013, using the regression analysis to further carry out the proof, the result of theoretical and empirical is that the impact on housing prices in China are relatively weak, this is mainly due to the time lag, low interest rates sensitivity of the interest rate policy, the low power performance of government regulation and the incomplete competition of real estate market. Aiming at these phenomena, this paper argues that we should raise the influence of interest rates gradually from these five aspects: riching the financing way of the real estate market; improving the sensitivity of the interest rates; strengthening the regulatory functions of our government; establishing a good financial environment and perfecting the operating mechanism of the real estate market.
Key Words：Interest rate Real estate price Supply Demand
目 录
一、引言 1
（一） 选题背景、研究目的及意义 1
（二）文献综述 2
1.国外研究现状 2
2.国内研究现状 2
二、利率与房地产价格关系的分析 4
（一）房价的形成和影响因素 4
1.供需形成房价 4
2.供需影响房价 4
（二）利率变动对房地产市场供需的影响 6