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毕 业 论 文 中 文 摘 要改革开放以来 ,中国经济 ①快速增长 。2001 年至 2006 年,国内生产总值 ( GD P) 的年均增长率为 101 1 % ,进出口总额的年均增长率约为 281 1 %,且出口的增长速度快于进口 , 2006 年出口总额年增长率达到 271 2 % 。②2005 年,中国进出口总额和出口总额均超过日本,居世界第三,仅次于美国和德国 。③目前,中国已成为美国的第三大贸易伙伴,美国则超过日本,成为仅次于欧盟的中国的第二大贸易伙伴 。对外贸易的高速增长推动了中国的经济发展和就业,然而在市场不断扩大 、贸易量持续增加的同时 ,中美贸易摩擦问题日渐突出,并成为两国经贸关系发展中不容忽视的问题 。据美国普查局公布的数据 , 2006 年美国对中国贸易逆差达 2325 亿美元 , ①居美国贸易逆差伙伴之首 。据中国国家统计局公布的数据 , 2006 年中国对美国的出口额为 2035亿美元,从美国的进口额为 592 亿美元,贸易顺差为 1443 亿美元 。② 中美贸易顺差的持续扩大引起了广泛的争议 。考虑到统计误差 、统计口径的差异 ,以及中美对出口额的统计中均未包括从香港的再出口等问题 ,一些学者如K. C. Fung 等人 ③,提出了一系列修正方法重新估测中美贸易差额,即将进出口数据均转换为出口国的离岸价格 ( Free o n Board , FOB) 、考虑香港再出口的影响 、扣除香港中间商对转口货物的转口加价 。然而 , 我们认为,修正之后的数据仍是对出口总额的一种调整 。8969
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关键词 顺差 进出口 中美贸易
Title： the present situation, the causes and solutions for Sino-US trade friction
Abstract
The Chinese economy (which refers to the mainland of China unless otherwise specified) has developed very quickly since China launched its opening-up policy in 1978. The annual average growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) from 2001 to 2006 was about 10.1%, while the total volume of trade grew at an annual rate of roughly 28.1%. It is worth noting,however, that exports grew faster than imports; for instance, the annual growth rate of total exports in 2006 reached 27.2% (see China Statistical Yearbook) and that of total imports reached 20.1%.3 In 2005, China surpassed Japan to become the third largest trading nation (the first two being the United States [hereafter the US] and Germany) not only in terms of
total exports but also in terms of the sum of total exports and imports. It has long been argued that the high growth rate of exports was driving China’s economic growth and employment expansion. At the same time, however, along with the expansion of China’s market share and trade volume, trade friction between China and the US has become more and more acute, making it an issue diffi cult to ignore in the two countries’ economic and trade relations.As shown in the data released by the US Census Bureau, the US-China trade deficit in 2006 reached US$232.5 billion, the largest among all US trade partners.4 For the same year,according to National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), China’s trade surplus vis-à-vis the US was US$144.3 billion, the difference between US$203.5 billion of China’s exports to the US and US$59.2 billion of China’s imports from the US. Regardless of the differences in the statistics of trade imbalances, China’s growing trade surplus has given rise to a great deal of controversies. Taking into account the two countries’ own statistical discrepancies, their differential statistical criteria for data collection, as well as their exclusion of re-exports via Hong Kong, Fung and Lau (2001; 2003) and Fung, Lau and Xiong (2006) develop a series of new methods for adjusting US-China trade data, including converting both import and export data to exporter’s FOB ( Free on Board) prices, considering the effects of re-exports via
Hong Kong, and deducting the margins and price mark-ups that have been added to those reexport goods. Although these adjustments help to resolve part of the problem of differential statistics for the two countries’ trade imbalances, the adjusted fi gures thus obtained are still an adjustment based on the total value of trade.
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