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摘要自改革开放以来，随着我国经济的不断发展，我国公司的内部管理制度中的诸多问题也暴露出来，从而导致公司深陷财务危机。建立财务危机预警系统，无论是对公司本身，或为股东和其他利益相关者来说都是非常重要。所以，在现阶段，建立有效的财务预警系统已迫在眉睫，这对于上市公司在中国的生存和发展具有十分重要的现实意义。65173
本文在现有的文献的基础上，简要介绍了财务风险预警的基本理论和概念，结合所学财务系统基本理论，选取适当的财务风险预警指标，收集沪深股市上市公司财务比率数据进行主成分分析，进而使用MINITAB软件采用Logit模型建立适当的财务风险预警模型，最后本文提出了公司治理风险体系的一些预控措施。
毕业论文关键词 财务风险预警 主成分分析 Logit模型
毕业论文 外 文 摘 要
Title The Research of Financial Crisis Warning and Monitoring
Abstract
Since the reform and opening up, China's market openness and gradually increase the increasingly fierce market competition at home and abroad, the company's internal management system also exposed many problems, which led to the financial crisis. Therefore, both for the company itself, or for shareholders, other stakeholders, to build the financial crisis early warning system is very necessary. Therefore, the establishment of effective financial early warning system of the present stage has been imminent, is of great practical significance for the survival and development of China's listed companies.
In this paper, on the basis of the existing literature, brief introduction to the basic theory of concepts and theories of financial risk early warning, combined have learned the basic theory of the financial system, select the appropriate financial risk early warning indicators, collecting financial ratios of the company listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock maincomponent analysis, and then using the logit model to establish appropriate financial risk early warning model. Finally, the system of corporate governance risk pre-control measures.
Keywords Financial risk early warning Principal component analysis Logit Model
目 次
1 引言 1
1.1 研究背景与意义 1
1.2 财务预警相关研究回顾 1
2 财务风险理论概述 3
2.1 风险的概念 3
2.2 财务风险的定义 4
2.3 财务风险的界定 5
3 财务风险指标评价体系概述 8
3.1 评价企业业绩的定量方法 8
3.2 分析数据的应用 8
4 上市公司财务预警模型设计 12
4.1 研究假设 12
4.2 财务指标的选择 12
4.3 研究样本的选取 13
4.4 财务预警模型的选择 14
4.5 Logit财务预警模型的建立 15
4.6 Logit财务预警模型的检验 19
5 公司治理风险的监控体系 22
结 论 23
致 谢 24