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摘要：本论文的主要研究内容是余额宝对银行股影响的定量评估。余额宝是中国第一支互联网货币基金，在推出的第一个月内，客户转入资金就突破60亿。这使得整个金融界为之轰动，在一定程度上影响了银行业。因此，余额宝与银行股之间必然存在一定的相关性。本文以的银行股以及余额宝在此期间的诸项数据来建立相关模型，进而进行短期影响的分析和长期影响的分析，以揭示余额宝对银行股的定量影响。30029
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首先通过互联网收集年对应的指标数据。然后利用SPSS软件对数据进行回归分析，经过模型的修正之后建立相应的线性回归模型，进而估计在余额宝不出现的情况下银行股的净利润，得到了余额宝对银行股有不利影响的结论。最后，通过数据分析余额宝对银行股的短期及长期影响，得出了余额宝对银行股影响的定量分析结果：(1)两者在短期内成负相关；(2)两者在长期内的相关性较小。
毕业论文关键词：余额宝；银行股；回归模型 ；相关性；SPSS软件
The quantitative assessment on the impact on bank stocks under the influence of Yu Ebao
Abstract: It is discussed in this paper that quantitative assessment on bank stocks under the influence of Yu Ebao. We all know that Yu Ebao is the first monetary fund on the Internet, and the capital quantity is beyond six billion yuan in one month. It shocks the entire financial world, and influences the banking industry in a certain extent. Hence, there must be a certain correlation between Yu Ebao and bank stocks. The relative model in this paper is based on the data of Yu Ebao and bank stocks between the year 2008 and year 2014. Then carry out relative research on short-term effects and long-term effects to reveal the quantitative assessment on the impact on bank stocks under the influence of Yu Ebao.
Firstly, gather the relative data from 2008 to 2014 through the Internet. Secondly, come to a conclusion that Yu Ebao hurts bank stocks through using SPSS software to carry regression analysis、revise models, and establish relative models to assess the net profit under the circumstances of Yu Ebao does not exist. Lastly, get the result of short-term effects and long-term effects through data analysis, and obtain the following two valid conclusions of the impact on bank stocks under the influence of Yu Ebao: (1) Correlation is negative in the short term; (2) Correlation is small in the long term.
Keywords: Yu Ebao; Bank stocks; Regression model; Correlation; SPSS software
目录
摘要 i
Abstract i
目录 ii
一、 引言 1
1. 课题的目的和意义 1
2. 国内外研究现状与发展趋势 1
3. 文献综述 2
二、 模型假设 4
三、 符号说明 5
1. SPSS输出符号说明 5
2. 银行股净利润模型符号说明 5
3. 余额宝与银行股短期相关性模型符号说明 7
4. 余额宝与银行股长期相关性模型符号说明 7
四、 数学知识的介绍 8
1. 多元线性回归模型[6] 8
2. 相关系数的理论[7] 8
3. 多重共线性[6] 9
五、 模型的建立与求解 10
1. 银行股净利润模型 10
2. 余额宝与银行股短期相关性模型 21