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摘要随着浙江省经济的快速发展，浙江省人们生活水平逐步提高，但是长期以来浙江省城乡居民消费差距无法得到根本性缩小，这已经影响到浙江省城乡居民整体生活质量的提高，也进一步阻碍浙江省内消费需求的增加。当前城乡居民消费差距的研究具有极大趋同性，即策略建议趋同、分析方式趋同、数据来源趋同、解释因素趋同。如消费数据主要都是来源于统计年鉴；从农民收入的变动来分析农民消费行为变化是大部分相关文献的研究范式；而城乡消费差距的原因大部分归结为收入因素。鉴于以上原因，本文试图以1978－2012年浙江省城乡居民消费水平数据为基础来构建ARMA模型，并分析消费差距扩大的原因，就得出的结果给出相应的对策和建议。运用ARMA模型分析了浙江省城乡居民消费水平的相关数据。 结果显示,城乡居民消费差距会继续扩大。提出了缩小城乡居民消费差距的相关建议。47238
Abstract With the rapid development of economy in zhejiang province, zhejiang province people's living level gradually improve, but the consumption gap of urban and rural residents in zhejiang province for a long time can't be narrowed, fundamentally this has affected the improvement of the overall quality of life in urban and rural residents in zhejiang province, also further hinder the increase of consumer demand in zhejiang province.The current gap between urban and rural residents consume great convergence, ie the convergence of data sources, to explain the factors of convergence, convergence analysis methods, strategic advice convergence.Such as consumption data sources relatively simple, mainly from the Statistical Yearbook data; changes in farmers' income from the analysis of changes in consumer behavior of farmers is that most literature research paradigm; differences in urban and rural consumption for many reasons attributed to the income factor. In view of lack of these studies, on the basis of objective factors of urban and rural consumption gap analysis, the attempt to widen the gap between urban and rural consumption reasons ARMA model by building and make suggestions. Based on the consumption level of urban and rural residents in zhejiang province in 1978-2012 data as the foundation, Using ARMA model to analyze the gap between urban and rural residents' consumption in zhejiang province.The results show that the consumption gap between urban and rural residents will continue to expand. Proposed narrowing the gap between urban and rural residents consumption recommendations.
毕业论文关键词：消费差距; 城乡统筹; 时间序列; ＡＲＭＡ模型
Keywords: consumption gap; urban; time series; ARMA model
目 录
1 引言 4
1.1 问题的提出 4
1.2.1 关于城镇居民消费的研究 4
1.2.2 关于农民消费的研究 5
1.2.3 城乡居民消费比较 5
1.3 本文的研究意义 6
2 浙江省城乡居民消费差距的现状 6
2.1 数据来源与描述 6
3 理论研究框架 9
3.1 自回归（AR）模型 9
3.2 移动平均(MA)模型 9
3.3 自回归移动平均(ARMA)模型 10
4 ＡＲＭＡ模型的拟合