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摘要 房价一直是中国人民关心的一个重要的话题。房地产的影响力巨大，牵涉到经济和社会问题。近年来，房地产过热逐渐成为全社会共同关注的话题,对于房地产讨论的焦点就是房地产中是否存在泡沫的问题。 本文首先对当前全国房地产市场的现状以及上海的城市概况和其房地产市场现状进行分析，然后根据上海市的实际情况和数据的可得性选取指标，并通过对 2000-2015年间上海市房地产市场发展运行状况进行分析，运用 Ramsey Model 等方法计算得出上海市房地产开发投资增长率与 GDP 增长率的比值、房价收入比、房地产开发投资占全社会固定资产投资的比值、土地价格泡沫倍数这四个指标的数值。最后用熵权法和功效系数法计算出泡沬综合系数 K值，由此得出上海市历年的房地产泡沫发生程度。结果表明：2000-2015 年,上海市房地产市场的泡沫综合系数 K 一直低于 100 这个合理无泡沫系数值。2000-2008 年一直处于关注水平，2009-2011 年受“四万亿计划”和三轮调控的影响，泡沫一直在警戒和关注区间内波动。2012年开始，受土地价格和房地产政策的影响，上海市的房地产泡沫一直处于警戒水平。 根据测量的结果，本文在最后从土地政策、住房保障结构、户籍制度及首付比例等方面对上海市房地产泡沫的防治提出了相关的政策建议。希望本文的研究方法、结论及相关政策建议能够为研究上海市及其他城市的房地产泡沫提供借鉴。 49650
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毕业论文关键词：房地产泡沫；熵权法；功效系数法；测度预警
Measurement, Early-warning and Prevention on the Real Estate Bubble of Shanghai
Abstract Chinese people are always very concerned about house prices. Real estate industry, which is highly interconnected, can lead to a series of economic and social problems. Real estate overheating problems gradually become the common concern of the society. Whether the real estate market exists bubble or not has become the focus of debate among researchers. This paper firstly analyzes the current situation of the real estate market throughout the country, the overview of Shanghai city and its current situation of the real estate market. Then, the indicators are chosen according to the actual situation of Shanghai city and the availability of data. The situation of Shanghai real estate market during the period of 2000 to 2015 is analyzed. Four indicators which are The ratio of the real estate development investment growth rate and GDP growth, Housing-price-to-income Ratio, The ratio of real estate investment in the total social investment in fixed assets, The land price foam multiples are calculated by Ramsey model, Market modification method and some other methods. Shanghai real estate bubble degree of calendar year is indicated by the value of K which is calculated by using the entropy method and the efficacy coefficient method. The results show that, during the period of 2000 to 2015,the value of K, which indicates the real estate bubble of Shanghai, was lower than 100, the reasonable value of no-bubble. The value of K was at attention level from 2000 to 2008.The foam, affected by ‘Four Thousand Billion Plan’ and three rounds of regulation and control, was between alert level and attention level from 2009 to 2011.However, with the increasingly high price of land and the change of relevant housing policies, the real estate bubble of Shanghai has returned to alert level since 2012. According to the measured results, this paper puts forward relevant policies and suggestions in terms of land policy, the structure of housing security, household registration system and down-payment. I hope the research technique, conclusion and relevant policies and suggestions of this paper can provide reference for the research on the real estate bubble of Shanghai and other cities.