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摘要通过对日本90年以来的一系列低利率政策，包括现在欧美等发达国家的零利率政策成因及效果研究，分析日本在90年代开始，经济出现倒退现象的问题。其主要原因是由贸易逆差、“广场协议”促使日元升值、1987年的“黑色星期一”以及与美国政策协调等一系列的因素造成的。通过量化的数据分析，可以揭示超低的官定利率直接导致了日本泡沫经济产生，尤其是房价的提升，引发了社会问题。而泡沫的破裂使得日本经济在90年代长期衰落。不可否认的是低利率政策有效地提升整个社会的消费水平以及投资需求，一定程度上刺激了经济增长，但是通过观察发现利率必须具有一定的弹性，过低的利率会影响形成不合理的货币政策，国家的经济发展会出现剧烈波动，市场会出现货币流动过剩现象以及银行过度依赖利率政策等一系列问题。对于我国的启示，要以日本低利率政策的经验教训作为借鉴，建立稳定且灵活的利率体制，使得政府能够更好地调控国民经济，促进经济可持续发展，社会发展脚步健康稳定地向前迈进。62345
毕业论文关键词：低利率政策；泡沫经济；社会问题；90年代
The analysis of low interest rate policy in Japan in 1990s
Abstract Through a series of studies of Japan's low interest rate policy since the 1990s , including the zero interest rate policy causes and effects Europe and other developed countries now,we analyze the economy backsliding problems of Japan in 1990s.The main reason is the trade deficit, "Plaza Agreement" to promote appreciation of the yen, a number of factors and policy coordination with the United States caused by the 1987 "Black Monday."Through quantitative data analysis, we can reveal ultra-low official interest rates set directly led to the Japanese bubble economy,especially the high price of upgrade rates,which led serious social problems.The collapse of the bubble economy is in a situation of long-term depression of the Japan in 1990s.Undeniably low interest rate policy effectively promoted investment in government and business, to some extent, to stimulate economic growth.However, the observation that interest rates must have some flexibility, low interest rates will form the irrational structure of interest rates, it is easy to fall into a liquidity trap, path dependence and other issues.China to Japan's low interest rate policy as a guide, the establishment of flexible interest rate system, enables a better interest rate policy to regulate the economy, the expansion of income and consumption to keep the economy development of the situation.
Keywords:Low Interest Rate Policy;Bubble Economy;Social problems;the 1990s
目录
0引言 1
1背景及问题的提出 1
3研究方法、思路 3
4战后日本经济发展 3
4.1低利率政策的成因 3
4.2战后日本经济发展趋势及低利率政策效果 5
4.3美国扶持 5
5日本过度扩张的货币政策引发经济危机 6
5.1泡沫经济 6
5.2突然紧缩货币政策导致经济崩盘 7
5.3基于泰勒规则对日本货币政策考察 8
5.4日本失业率问题 9
5.5小结 9
6日本90年代重新采取低利率政策