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摘要目前我国已进入消费加速转型期，居民消费由原来简单的数量增长演变为数量增长与结构调整并行，消费升级通过衣食—耐用消费品—住宅、交通、通讯、文化教育、娱乐、医疗和旅游等产业链不断演化，消费结构向更高层次转化。本论文用理论分析和实证分析的方法研究上海市城市居民消费支出结构变动的特征。使用扩展线性支出系统（ELES）模型对城市居民消费结构进行研究分析，首先针对“十一五”期间数据对此期间消费结构的特点进行了分析，其次从跨时期的角度，对比研究“十一五”相对于“十五”时期居民消费结构的新变化，并据此对“十二五”期间上海城市居民消费结构的演变特点进行了预测。有助于把握城市发展特征、制定有效的经济政策、促进产业结构升级和国民经济可持续发展。10518
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关键词 消费支出 消费结构 ELES模型 上海城市居民
毕 业 论 文 外 文 摘 要
Title Research on Current China’s Urban Residents’ Consumption Structure Evolution -the Case of Shanghai
Abstract
At present, China’s consumption has entered the period of speedy transformation. Residents’ consumption evolve from a simple increase in number to the total consumption growth with equal emphasis on structure adjustment. Consumption upgrade through the food and clothing-durable consumer goods-housing, transportation, communication, culture education, entertainment, medical and tourism industry chain. Consumption structure transform to a higher level. In this paper, theoretical and empirical analyses are used to study the characteristics of the Shanghai urban residents’ consumption expenditure structure changes. Using the extended linear expenditure system model(ELES) , I firstly analyze the characteristics of the consumption structure during the “11th five year plan” period. Secondly I make a cross-period research on the new features during the “11th five year plan” period in contrast to the “10th five year plan” period, and based on this I predict the consumption structure during the “12th five year plan” period. The paper helps to grasp the urban development characteristics, to make effective economic policy， and to promote the upgrading of the industrial structure and national economic sustainable development.
Keywords consumption expenditure consumption structure ELES model Shanghai urban residents
目 次
1 引言 1
2 文献综述 2
3 研究方法与数据来源 5
3.1 扩展的线性支出系统需求函数模型（ELES） 5
3.2 数据来源 6
4 截面数据回归 7
4.1 ELES模型的参数估计 7
4.1.1 数据处理 7
4.1.2 ELES模型参数估计 7
4.2模型的经济意义 8
4.2.1 边际消费倾向和增量结构 8
4.2.2 基本消费支出水平 8
4.2.3 基本消费水平下的消费结构 10
4.2.4 需求的收入弹性与价格弹性 11
5 时间序列回归 13
5.1 模型建立 13
5.2 模型的经济意义 13
5.3 模型的统计检验 15
6 “十二五”消费结构预测 16
6.1 模型建立 16
6.2 基本结论 17
结论 19
致谢 21