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摘要作为一种可再生的清洁能源，风电对于缓解全球能源危机，环境保护有着重大的意义。近年来风电迅速发展，给电力系统的规划运行带来了很大的挑战。风电由于其随机性、间歇性、能量密度低的特点，为输电网规划与调度增加了不确定性。大规模风电接入电网，使得传统的输电网规划模型不再适用。本文从传统的确定性输电网规划模型着手，简要分析了当负荷和风电出力发生变化时对于输电网规划结果的定性影响。接着，考虑最优潮流的问题，变动各发电机组的出力比例，得到相比于传统的输电网扩展规划方案适应性更加优良的最优潮流规划方案。风电作为一种不确定变量引入输电网扩展规划。为了简化计算，不考虑风电的具体概率分布，而是利用田口正交序列测试法，从所有的不确定组合中选取数组代表场景，分别进行方案优化。同时也考虑了负荷削减和风电出力削减的问题，得到具有代表性的规划方案并在 Garver6 节点系统上进行了验证。此外，为了验证规划方案的鲁棒性，通过蒙特卡洛模拟法生成大量随机场景，得到规划方案的鲁棒性度量百分数，方便规划人员的筛选与决策。在求解过程中，采用遗传算法，通过选择、交叉、变异等操作，对候选方案不断地迭代寻优，最终得到最优解与可行解。30928
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毕业论文关键词 输电网扩展规划 不确定性 田口正交序列测试 鲁棒设计
Title Robust Transmission Network Expansion Planning With Uncertain Renewable Generation
Abstract As a kind of clean and renewable energy, wind power is of great significance tothe mitigation of global energy crisis and environmental protection. In recentyears, the rapid development of wind power has brought great challenges tothe planning and operation of electric power system.The traditional transmissionnetwork planning model is no longer applicable beccause of large scale wind powerintegration.In this paper, the qualitative effect of the load and wind power output on thetransmission network planning is briefly analyzed.Then, considering the problemof the optimal power flow, the output proportion of the power generation unitsis changed, and the optimal power flow planning scheme is compared with thetraditional transmission network expansion planning scheme.The wind power is introduced as an uncertain variable in transmission networkexpansion planning. Take use of the Taguchi orthogonal array testing method tooptimize the design. The problem of load reduction and wind power output reductionis also considered. In addition, the robustness of the validation of the programis abtained by Monte Carlo simulation method.Finally, the genetic algorithm is adopted to optimize the candidate scheme andget the optimal solution and feasible solution.
Keywords Transmission Network Planning UncertaintyTcguchi’s Orthogonal Array Testing Robust Design
目次
1绪论1
1.1研究背景与意义.1
1.2国内外研究现状.2
1.3本文主要研究内容.6
2输电网扩展规划的理论基础8
2.1引言.8
2.2鲁棒优化相关理论.8
2.3机会约束规划方法.9
2.4遗传算法的一般概念.9
3传统输电网扩展规划13
3.1引言.13
3.2输电网扩展规划中的直流模型.13
3.3传统确定性输电扩展规划模型.15
3.4输电网扩展规划中的遗传算法.17
3.5仿真分析.18
3.6小结.19
4基于最优潮流的输电网扩展规划20
4.1最优潮流概念.20
4.2基于最优潮流的扩展规划模型.20
4.3仿真对比与分析.20
5考虑风电场不确定性的鲁棒输电网扩展规划22
5.1引言.22
5.2田口正交序列测试法.22
5.3基于田口正交序列测试法的鲁棒性输电网扩展规划.24
5.4仿真分析.27
5.5小结.29
结论30