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摘要近年来，我国数字营销行业持续高速增长，研究影响数字营销市场规模的因素是一个重要课题，找出重要的影响因素，将给企业家们进行数字营销时带来有用的讯息，也给企业家们提供如何开拓数字营销的运营渠道以及拓展市场的参考依据等。首先，根据参考资料及个人判断，挑选出20个初选因素，并搜集其2000年-2013年的数据，利用主成分分析整合具有重复可能性的6个指标，用描述性统计分析方法分析剩余的15个因素的变化趋势。接着，用Pearson相关性分析删除了3个指标。然后，本文侧重于对数字营销市场规模的影响因素的研究，对剩余的12个自变量直接做回归分析的效果不佳，于是采用逐步回归方法和主成分分析方法的结合来选取最优的回归方程。分析得出的影响数字营销发展的因素可分为两类，一类是消费者外在参与因素，另一类是数字营销平台内在因素。最后，用时间序列对企业数字营销市场规模进行预测，即可预计到数字营销带来的大致收益，企业就能根据这些预测作出相应的进销存决策，以实现投资回报的最大化，并提出相应提高营销规模等建议。45030
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[毕业论文关键词]：数字营销；回归分析；主成分分析；逐步回归；ARIMA模型
Abstract
In recent years, digital marketing industry is developing rapidly and continuously in China, researching on the influence factors of digital marketing’s market scale becomes an important subject, which can find out the important factors and bring entrepreneurs useful information when they do marketing, but also can provide entrepreneurs with how to develop digital marketing channels and expand market. Firstly, according to the reference data and personal judgment, I selected 20 primary factors, and collected these index data of 2000 -2013. I use principal component analysis method to merge the six of these factors that have the possibility of coincidence. And then analyze with the method of descriptive statistics analysis on the remaining 15 factors that may influence digital marketing’s scale, which shows the trends of these indexes from 2000 to 2013. Then, I remove 3 indexes by using Pearson correlation analysis. Then, this paper focuses on the research on the effect factors of digital marketing market scale, doing regression analysis for the remaining 12 variables, but I found that the effect is not good. So I combine the stepwise regression method with the principal component analysis method to select the optimal regression equation. The factors that influence development of the digital marketing can be pided into two categories, one is consumer participation external factors, the other is digital marketing platform of internal factors. Finally, I predict the enterprise digital marketing market scale with the time series method, which can be expected to generally return digital marketing brings and give enterprises some useful message.
[Key Words]：digital marketing, regression analysis, stepwise regression, principal component analysis, ARIMA model
目 录
摘 要 ……………I
Abstract II
1. 绪论 1
1.1 研究背景 ...1
1.2 国内外研究状况 1
1.3 主要研究工作 2
2. 数字营销 2
2.1 数字营销概述 2
2.2 数字营销近年来的发展状况 2
3.数据处理 3
3.1 数据选择——初选因子 3
3.2 数据合并 4
3.2.1 主成分分析的概述 4
3.2.2 基于主成分分析方法合并各渠道用户规模变量 5
3.3 基本统计特征 5